Friday, September 9, 2011

ISU Notes, Expectations, and Predictions

When Iowa State has the ball-

They run one of those quircky semi no huddle offenses where they come to the line look at the defense and then get the call from the sideline. Normally this is a different type of offense for the Iowa defense to face, but they faced a similar offense last week in Tennessee Tech and didn’t seem to have much problem with it. The Iowa State offense starts and ends with quarterback Steele Jantz. He single handedly brought them back from the jaws of defeat last week but you could also argue that his poor decision making in the first half put them in a hole. He leads the team in rushing with 80 yards on 20 carries, something that I am sure the ISU coaches don’t want to see is their quarterback taking 20 carries. Besides Jantz the Cyclones will deploy a three headed attack out of the backfield. Jeff Woody is a Southeast Polk alum and is used more in short yardage situations. Shontrelle Johnson is a shifty back that Iowa State wasn’t able to get the ball much to last week, but he is the home run threat out of the backfield. James White is the third member of their backfied and like Johnson, he is a small shifty back that they love to get out into the open field against defenders. In the passing attack Jantz looks for Aaron Horne a lot, who was a junior college teammate of Steele’s. Horne had 7 catches last week and will operate primarily out of the slot. Josh Lenz is their big play reciever averaging 19 yards per catch this season after averaging 12 last year. A player who has had all the hype since he arrived on campus is Darius Reynolds, who in his senior year has yet to deliver on the hype. He has grabbed 41 balls over his four year career and was involved last week in some costly personal foul penalties. Iowa actually matches up pretty well against the Cyclones defensively as they have upgraded their athletecism in the back seven from last season.

When Iowa has the ball-
Iowa State hasn’t had a quality defense in years and this year could be their best in recent memory. That being said, this defense still isn’t very good. Their defensive line still has problems creating pressure on opposing quarterbacks and that causes the defensive backs to have to cover even longer. The ISU defense gave up close to 400 yards of offense to an offense that doesn’t have near the weapons that Iowa will have on the field on Saturday. The Cyclone linebackers are very good and it would be intersting to see what they could do if they had a quality defensive line so that they could be free to run and make plays. Iowa’s offensive line should be able to dominate the line of scrimmage and if they do that, the game won’t be close.

Iowa is 6-2 in the last 8 games of this series
Iowa State only has 1 TD against Iowa in the last 18 quarters and that was against the 2nd string last year
Marvin McNutt only needs three receiving TD’s to tie the Iowa all time record
Iowa hasn’t allowed a punt return TD in 8 years
The Hawkeyes haven’t allowed a 200 yard individual rusher in 11 years

Tale of the Tape:

                                   Iowa            ISU
Record                      1-0, 0-0      1-0, 0-0
Scoring                          34                20
Scoring Defense              7                 19
Rushing                         148              141
Passing                         246               187
Total Offense                396               328
Rushing Defense           140                204
Passing Defense            156               181
Total Defense               296               385
Punt Returns                   0                 3.7
Kick Returns                30.5             19.6
Turnovers                      +1                 -3

Hawkstop’s Predictions:

Iowa – 31
ISU – 10

Iowa continues their dominance in the turnover category, forcing 3
Vandenberg finishes with 250+ yards and three scores
Coker has a nice rebound game with 70+ and 1 TD
McNutt has a great game with 125+ 2 TD
Davis catches 5 balls for 60+ yards
Martin Manley has a catch for 50+ yards
James Morris has 10+ tackles
Steele Jantz doesn’t finish the game
Iowa defense has 4 sacks
Jordan Bernstein records a forced fumble and 5 tackles

Monday, September 5, 2011

Tennessee Tech Predictions Recap

Hawkstop’s Predictions/Actuals:

Good Prediction
Okay Prediction
What was I thinking?

Iowa – 42 34
TT – 7 7

Iowa continues their dominance in the turnover category, forcing 3 2 forced turnovers
Vandenberg finishes with 170+ yards and three scores 219 yards 2 TD, 1 rushing
Coker has a monster game with 175+ and 2 scores 41 yards , 0 TD
McNutt has a very pedestrian game with 50+ and 1 TD 140 yards, 2 TD
Martin-Manley bursts onto the scene with 100+ yards a 1 TD 0 catches
We see the jailbreak screen for the first time in years McNutt scored his second touchdown on the jailbreak
Christian Kirksey has an INT and fumble recovery to go with 6+ tackles 0 INT, 0 Fumb Rec, 10 Tackles

Friday, September 2, 2011

Tennesse Tech Expectations and Predictions

When Tennessee Tech has the ball-

Last season they were about as balanced an offensive team as you can get, averaging 157.4 and 157.5 yards per game rushing and passing respectively. Their offensive philosophy is similar to that of Oregon’s, if you run more plays you can score more points. That being said, this will be a great test for Iowa’s defense, who has historically had problems with high tempo type offenses. Returning for the Golden Eagles is quarterback, Tre Lamb #9, a dual threat quarterback that only stands at 5’9”. His favorite target will be Tim Benford #3, who will probably leave Tech as the record holder of almost all their career receiving records. They will use a rotation in the backfield and put them in motion to try and use their speed to gain the edge. Their offensive line is average, but are solid at the kind of offense they run, rarely are they asked to pass block for more than a three to five step drop. The stronger side of the line is the left side which includes Scott Schweitzer, an all Ohio Vally Conference preseason selection. Make no doubt about it, this offense will test the Iowa defense stamina later in the game.

When Iowa has the ball-

The Golden Eagles will deploy a defense on Saturday that is ill-fitted to defend a Big Ten offense. Their defensive ends tip the scales at 230 and 240 and gave up nearly 200 yards rushing per game last season. Look for them to stack the box to try and stop the potent Iowa running attack, leaving them susceptible to the play action pass game. Their linebackers are on the small side as well with the inside backer at 210 and one of the outside at 215. As is with most underdogs, look for Tennessee Tech to take some chances defensively in a game where they really have nothing to lose. If they watch the game film from two years ago they will see that Vandenberg had trouble reading the Minnesota blitz and try to confuse the first year starter.

Hawkstop’s Predictions:

Iowa – 42
TT – 7

Iowa continues their dominance in the turnover category, forcing 3
Vandenberg finishes with 170+ yards and three scores
Coker has a monster game with 175+ and 2 scores
McNutt has a very pedestrian game with 50+ and 1 TD
Martin-Manley bursts onto the scene with 100+ yards a 1 TD
We see the jailbreak screen for the first time in years
Christian Kirksey has an INT and fumble recovery to go with 6+ tackles

Big Ten Predictions


Nebraska     10-2, 6-2
Iowa              9-3, 5-3
Michigan        8-4, 4-4
MSU             7-5, 4-4
Northwestern 7-5, 4-4
Minnesota      4-8, 1-7


Wisconsin     10-2, 6-2
Ohio St.          8-4, 5-3
Penn St.          8-4, 5-3
Illinois             7-5, 4-4
Indiana            4-8, 2-6
Purdue            4-8, 1-7


Thursday, September 1, 2011

Tennessee Tech vs Iowa News and Notes

Tennessee Tech is coached by Watson Brown who’s brother is Texas head coach Mack Brown
Jordan Bernstein was singled out by Coach Ferentz as the most impressive performer in fall camp. Look for him to play in the nickel package as well as return kicks.

Carl Davis is out of Saturday’s game, could leave the door open for Darian Cooper to find the field.

Micah Hyde will return punts, could be electrifying.

A.J. Derby is alone as the backup quarterback

Tennessee Tech returns 21 starters, by far the most of any team that Iowa will play this season

Last season Tennessee Tech lost to Arkansas and TCU by a combined 106-10

In only 7 games last season, Marcus Coker tallied the 4th highest freshman total at Iowa

86% of senior starters at iowa have either been drafted or signed FA deals over the last 12 years

Iowa has only allowed a single individual 100 yard rusher each season for the last three years

Iowa has not lost a game by more than 7 points in 39 games

Iowa is 12th in the nation in Graduation Success Rate among Division 1 schools

Tale of the Tape

                                Iowa       TN Tech
Record                  8-5, 4-4     5-6, 4-4
Scoring                    28.9             24
Scoring Defense        17             28.8
Rushing                   148.4         157.4
Passing                    234.5         157.5
Total Offense          382.9          314.8
Rushing Defense      101.5          193.9
Passing Defense       230.5         184.9
Total Defense          332.1          378.8
Punt Returns              8.2             15.5
Kick Returns            25.3            15.5
Turnovers                  +1               +.5