Iowa's season has left many fans wondering what has happened. The fact of the matter is, Iowa just needs to win to share of the Big Ten title. That task begins this weekend as Michigan State will place their #5 BCS ranking on the line when they roll into Iowa City. Last season, Iowa went into East Lansing with a #6 BCS ranking and escaped with a 15-13 win.
When Michigan State has the ball:
The Michigan State offense is like Iowa looking into a mirror. Their run game is almost exclusively zone plays, whether it is inside or outside the run the zone. Don't look for them to run much downhill, Iso or Power type runs like Wisconsin ran last week. They have very good running backs that are patient and allow the blocks to develop. The offensive line isn't near as good as Wisconsin's, but they are probably more athletic and get to the second level to block linebackers much better than Wisconsin. When they go to the air, the Spartans have a very talented receiver corps. Like Iowa, they will use their tight end in various positions and create mismatches. Cousins usually makes good decisions, but does have some gun slinger in him. He has a tendency to hold the ball a little longer than he should and opens himself up to sacks.
When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa will do what Iowa does, they will run the ball and setup the defense for the play action pass. Michigan State poses a solid front 7, they will blitz and have possibly the best set of linebackers that Iowa will face all season. The Spartan defense is susceptible to the run as they allowed Wisconsin to run for a little under 200 yards when they played. Iowa has a distinct advantage with its receivers over the Spartans defensive backs, look for Stanzi to exploit this early and often.
Predictions:
Iowa - 31
MSU - 24
Stanzi gets his second ever 300 yard game with 3 TD's
Robinson totes the ball 25+ times for 100+ and a TD
DJK sets the receptions record and gets closer to the TD record with 2
Iowa nets 5 sacks
MSU scores on special teams
Cousins throws three INT's
Iowa holds MSU under 175 yard rushing
Friday, October 29, 2010
Michigan St. - 10 Things to watch
- Iowa's run defense needs to step up big time. With the assumption that Jeff Tarpanian and Jerimiah Hunter are both not playing, Iowa will probably have a true freshman playing the middle linebacker position. Against a team that runs the ball as well as Michigan State, the defensive line is going to have to have a great game to give Iowa a shot at winning. The Spartans' primary backs, Baker and Bell, both average over six yards a carry.
- Iowa's offensive line improving. The last four games, the line has given up a total of three sacks and two of those came on plays where Stanzi left the pocket. Besides keeping Ricky upright, they have been doing a very good job at opening up holes for Adam Robinson to run for just short of 117 yards per game the last four games. After the Arizona game, there was a lot of talk about the line not being that good, but they have proven over the last four weeks that they are more than adequate.
- Turnovers Both teams are solid in the turnover game, both are positive over a turnover a game. It has been since the first quarter of the Penn State game that Iowa has turned the ball over, a streak that has covered 11 quarters. Michigan State has fumbled the ball 10 times this season, losing 7 of them. Whichever team wins the turnover margin has a good shot at winning the game.
- Norm will be in the house. He has not been into the office, so he will probably not be making calls and wasn't involved with the game plan, but he is one of the best if not the best at making adjustments. That is something that he will be able to do on the fly from the press box. Along with making adjustments, don't underestimate the emotional boost his presence will give the defense.
- Michigan State 2010 = Iowa 2009 Michigan State was a team that was thought to be able to challenge for the Big Ten title this year, but very few people would have predicted them being 8-0. The way that they have gotten there is even more unorthodox, they had to have a furious rally last week against Northwestern and used a fake field goal in overtime to beat Notre Dame. The other thing to watch is how Michigan State reacts to having the target on their back as opposed to usually being the underdog.
- Iowa has to start winning the close ones. Over the last three seasons, Iowa has lost a total of 8 games, each and every one of them were by 7 points or less. The last three years, the Michigan State versus Iowa game has been decided by a total of 12 points. Odds are in favor of this also being a close game.
- Field Goal kickers. Michigan State has one of the better kickers in the game in Dan Conroy who is 13 of 14 on the season. Iowa has a young kicker in Mike Meyer, who has made his last four field goal attempts. If this game comes down to a field goal, look for either kicker to make the kick.
- Chris L. Rucker Rucker was part of the brew ha ha at the end of last season at a residence hall. After being reinstated from that incident, head coach Mark D'Antonio stated that he would have "zero tolerance," in regards to Rucker. While he was on probation, Rucker got pinched for driving under the influence. He was sentenced to eight days in jail and was reinstated to the program the same day that he was released from jail. Make no doubt about it, D'Antonio didn't reinstate him to not play him this weekend and Rucker is probably MSU's best defensive back. What kind of shape he will be in will be interesting, not being involved with the program for 8 days is a lot of time.
- Pressure on the Defensive backs. Iowa's defensive backs have had a solid season to date, but they haven't faced a passing attack like the one they will face this weekend. Kirk Cousins is a poor man's Ricky Stanzi, makes good decisions and has weapons on the outside. Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham are the first two receivers and each have over 30 catches on the season and are the primary targets in the red zone. Keshawn Martin and Keith Nichol operate out of the slot when MSU goes three wide. Martin is their speedster that they will use on fly sweeps. Iowa has to be able to make open field tackles as MSU loves the slot screen and "smoke" routes putting their wide outs one on one with defensive backs. If Iowa's front seven cannot stop the run and the safeties have to step into the box to help, the Spartan receivers are good enough to burn Iowa deep on play action.
- Special Teams. Obviously if you have watched Iowa at all this season, you know that special teams have been anything but special. It isn't just one team either, the kickoff and field goal teams have been awful this season. Michigan State on the other hand used a fake punt last week to win and a fake field goal against Notre Dame to win.
Michigan St. - Notes
- Iowa is 6-4 in the last 10 against MSU
- DJK is tied for the career receptions record at Iowa
- Iowa is converting 52% of third down conversions
- Opponents are 64% on fourth down this season
- Opponents have scored 38% of their points in the fourth quarter
- Iowa has only allowed 7 points off of turnovers
- Rick Stanzi has the best winning percentage of any quarterback in Iowa history
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Wisconsin - Predictions Recap
Predictions:
Iowa - 27 (30)
Wisconsin - 13 (31)
Adam Robinson eclipses the century mark with 100+ yards and 2 TD's (114 yards 1 TD)
Rick Stanzi has a quiet game with 200+ yards passing 1 TD (258 yards 3 TD)
DJK comes up short of the record with 4 catches for 60 yards (5 catches 93 yards)
Iowa defense holds Clay to only 80 yards or less (91 yards)
Iowa turns Wisconsin over four times (1)
Sash has two interceptions (0)
Sash has two interceptions (0)
Friday, October 22, 2010
Iowa vs Wisconsin - Predictions
When Wisconsin has the ball-
Wisconsin's offense starts and ends with the run. Both John Clay and James White will carry the ball for the Badgers and they are averaging 113 and 80 yards per game respectively. Clay has yet to catch a ball out of the backfield, so don't look for him on passing downs to leave the backfield. Last year, the Badgers were able to gouge the Hawkeye defense with the counter run, but in the second half, Iowa made some changes and were able to stymie the Badger offense. The senior signal caller for Wisconsin, Scott Tolzien, is more of a game manager than a game controller. He has only had one game so far this season with more than one touchdown and that came in a 70-3 route. Look for Iowa to load the box and force Wisconsin to pass the ball. When they do pass the ball, Tolzien looks for his tight end Lance Kendricks and wide receiver Nick Toon. Toon missed three games with injury, but is still second on the team in receptions. Almost every pass attempt that Wisconsin makes is off the play-action. There is a huge advantage for Iowa as Wisconsin runs about the same type of offense that Iowa runs and the defense has played against that kind of offense since fall camp opened.
When Iowa has the ball-
The Wisconsin defense is solid, but not spectacular. They have yet to really be tested, last week they jumped out to an early lead against Ohio State and forced the Buckeyes to be one dimensional. They are solid in the line and linebackers, but their secondary is the weak point of the defense. Iowa should be able to move the ball, but must avoid turnovers to win the game.
What will happen-
This game will take fans back to yesteryear in the Big Ten. It will be like two prize fighters in the middle of the ring trading body blows with both teams needing to run to set up the pass. Look for Iowa to get ahead early with a play action pass to McNutt. The halftime score will be close something like 10-7 or 13-10 with Iowa holding the lead. The second half will like most Iowa games be dominated by the Hawkeyes. The Iowa defense will contain the running backs and force Tolzien into passing situations. Iowa will take the air out of the ball with the run game and short passes to keep the clock moving.
Predictions:
Iowa - 27
Wisconsin - 13
Adam Robinson eclipses the century mark with 100+ yards and 2 TD's
Rick Stanzi has a quiet game with 200+ yards passing 1 TD
DJK comes up short of the record with 4 catches for 60 yards
Iowa defense holds Clay to only 80 yards or less
Iowa turns Wisconsin over four times
Sash has two interceptions
Wisconsin's offense starts and ends with the run. Both John Clay and James White will carry the ball for the Badgers and they are averaging 113 and 80 yards per game respectively. Clay has yet to catch a ball out of the backfield, so don't look for him on passing downs to leave the backfield. Last year, the Badgers were able to gouge the Hawkeye defense with the counter run, but in the second half, Iowa made some changes and were able to stymie the Badger offense. The senior signal caller for Wisconsin, Scott Tolzien, is more of a game manager than a game controller. He has only had one game so far this season with more than one touchdown and that came in a 70-3 route. Look for Iowa to load the box and force Wisconsin to pass the ball. When they do pass the ball, Tolzien looks for his tight end Lance Kendricks and wide receiver Nick Toon. Toon missed three games with injury, but is still second on the team in receptions. Almost every pass attempt that Wisconsin makes is off the play-action. There is a huge advantage for Iowa as Wisconsin runs about the same type of offense that Iowa runs and the defense has played against that kind of offense since fall camp opened.
When Iowa has the ball-
The Wisconsin defense is solid, but not spectacular. They have yet to really be tested, last week they jumped out to an early lead against Ohio State and forced the Buckeyes to be one dimensional. They are solid in the line and linebackers, but their secondary is the weak point of the defense. Iowa should be able to move the ball, but must avoid turnovers to win the game.
What will happen-
This game will take fans back to yesteryear in the Big Ten. It will be like two prize fighters in the middle of the ring trading body blows with both teams needing to run to set up the pass. Look for Iowa to get ahead early with a play action pass to McNutt. The halftime score will be close something like 10-7 or 13-10 with Iowa holding the lead. The second half will like most Iowa games be dominated by the Hawkeyes. The Iowa defense will contain the running backs and force Tolzien into passing situations. Iowa will take the air out of the ball with the run game and short passes to keep the clock moving.
Predictions:
Iowa - 27
Wisconsin - 13
Adam Robinson eclipses the century mark with 100+ yards and 2 TD's
Rick Stanzi has a quiet game with 200+ yards passing 1 TD
DJK comes up short of the record with 4 catches for 60 yards
Iowa defense holds Clay to only 80 yards or less
Iowa turns Wisconsin over four times
Sash has two interceptions
Wisconsin - Ten things to watch
The 86th meeting of the Wisconsin Badgers and the Iowa Hawkeyes will be a barn burner, much like recent history. The two teams are linked by several factors, Wisconsin's head coach and athletic director are former Hawkeye coaches. Both teams are more "old school" in their approach to football, you won't see spread formations or wildcat formations on Saturday. What you will see is two teams that rely heavily on their offensive and defensive lines and quarterbacks that don't make mistakes. Here are ten things that will help determine the outcome of the game.
- Iowa's defensive line vs Wisconsin's offensive line. You could bill this one as the clash of the titans. Wisconsin's offensive line and Iowa's defensive line were both touted by many pundits as one of the best in their respective units. Both lines have several future NFL players and have not disappointed yet this season. Iowa's defensive line has helped Iowa's defense to remain one of the toughest defenses in the nation. Wisconsin's offensive line has paved the way for two running backs that both average over 80 yards per game and are the most productive running back duos in the nation. The unit that wins this battle will go a long way to determine the outcome of the game.
- Scott Tolzien vs. Rick Stanzi Both teams bring in fifth year seniors at quarterback. Both Tolzien and Stanzi win ball games, bottom line. In last years game, Tolzien threw three interceptions and Stanzi threw none, that was the major difference in the game. Whichever starting quarterback gives his team the best chance to win will determine the winner of this game.
- Lance Kendricks vs Tyler Nielsen. Lance Kendricks, Wisconsin's leading receiver, is their tight end and will be on the field most of the game. Kendricks isn't your typical tight end however, he is a much better pass catcher than he is a blocker. Wisconsin will move him around in formations and will even split him out often. He will be matched up against Iowa's sam linebacker, Tyler Nielsen, most of the game. So far this season, Nielsen has proven that he is great in pass coverage. Kendricks is Tolzien's favorite target in the red zone, catching three of his seven touchdown passes.
- Wisconsin lacks a deep threat. So far on the season, Wisconsin's longest pass reception is 45 yards. They don't have a lot of deep routes either, they run a lot of intermediate and quick routes. The routes that they run are the exact routes that you have to run to have success against the Iowa defense. Also don't look for much in the screen department, it is just not a play that Wisconsin likes to run.
- Rain, rain go away. Forecast is for rain and a lot of it. In the morning the showers are supposed to begin and possible thunderstorms in the afternoon. There is no real advantage for either team more than the other team. A wet field will help Wisconsin, because they want to run the ball, it will help Iowa because Iowa will go with play-action passes and when a receiver knows where and when he will cut, he has an advantage on a defensive back who might slip with quick movements.
- The "Norm" chant. Iowa fans started the idea of chanting "Norm" on third down to honor the defensive coordinator, who had his foot amputated due to diabetes a few weeks ago. Then the University got behind the idea and started to promote it. If the fans in the stadium come through, it will be a great tribute to one of Iowa's greatest coordinators ever.
- JJ Watt vs Riley Reiff and Markus Zusevics Watt is the heart and soul of the Wisconsin defense, in the last three games, he has had four sacks and 7 tackles for loss. Iowa's tackles will have to be ready for Watt as he is a fierce pass rusher and is also tough to run against. If Iowa can contain Watt, they will be able to move the ball with both the run and pass.
- Wisconsin letdown. Last week Wisconsin played the #1 team in the nation at home and won, will they be able to come out and give the same kind of effort a week later. Many teams fear the hangover of winning a big game. You will know right away if Wisconsin has a hangover or not, if Iowa gets up early it could mean game over for Wisconsin as they are a running team that passes to set up the pass.
- The Red Zone Wisconsin has turned their last 23 red zone trips into touchdowns while Iowa has only allowed 9 scores in 17 trips by their opponents. If Wisconsin completes their drives with touchdowns, Iowa will struggle to win. If Iowa keeps the Badgers to field goal attempts, a victory for Iowa is in sight.
- Iowa's wide receivers If Rick Stanzi is given time, Iowa's receivers will find a lot of open space in the Badger secondary. The Badger secondary isn't the best and can't match Iowa's talent at the receiver position. Like every week, if Iowa can establish the run, it will setup the play-action pass. Look for Stanzi to take a few shots deep and be successful on a couple of those attempts.
Wisconsin - Notes
- Wisconsin has allowed 3 rushing TD's this season, Iowa has allowed 2
- Iowa has won their last ten games where a trophy was at stake
- Iowa is 4-2 in their last six against Wisconsin
- DJK needs 5 catches and 7 Touchdowns to tie the all-time records at Iowa
- Iowa has only allowed 9 scores on 17 opponent red zone opportunities this season
- Iowa has scored 69 points off of turnovers this season, their opponents have scored 14
- Iowa is yet to give up any points in the third quarter
- Wisconsin has scored on 5 of 7 first possessions this year, Iowa given up 2 of 6
- Wisconsin is converting 52% of third downs, Iowa defense is holding teams to 31%
- Wisconsin averaging 3.29 penalties per game, Iowa averaging 5 per game
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Michigan - What we learned
Iowa went in to the new "Big House" and came away with a solid road victory. Here are some things that we learned about Iowa this week.
- Adam Robinson is a stud. A lot of Iowa fans are concerned about Robinson being able to be a full-time Big Ten running back, but so far this season he is proving them wrong. Not only is he a good runner, but he is probably the best pass receiving running back at Iowa since Albert Young. You could go as far as to say that Adam Robinson is exactly what head coach Kirk Ferentz wants as a running back. He runs hard, never seems to go down with first contact, never fumbles, blocks, and catches the ball out of the backfield. Currently Robinson is 4th in the Big Ten in rushing yards and third in all-purpose yards.
- Brad Rodgers is versatile. Brad Rodgers came to Iowa as a running back and played there in his true freshman year on the scout team. This season he was buried on the depth chart early, so he moved to fullback and is listed as the backup. Last weekend when Brett Morse couldn't play due to injury, he got his first ever start and quietly had a really nice game. Earlier this season, he played running back in mop up duty and did a nice job. The rest of this season and the next three years, Rodgers brings an element to Iowa's offense that we haven't seen in several years, a full back that can carry the ball.
- Ricky Stanzi a 2010 version of Brad Banks? Are the same style of quarterback? No, but the parallels of their senior season's is too much to ignore. Through 6 games, Banks was completing 60% of his passes for 1231 yards with 12 TD's and 2 interceptions. Stanzi is completing 68% of his passes for 1474 yards with 13 TD's and 2 interceptions. Both teams were 5-1 through six games and Iowa was the better team in the losses. If the 2010 Hawkeyes can run the table like the 2002 Hawks, look for Stanzi to be in New York come December.
- The road to the Rose Bowl travels through Iowa City. The four teams considered to be the front runners are Iowa, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, all three of these teams have to come to Kinnick stadium to play the Hawks. If Iowa can take care of business at home, Pasadena in January sounds very nice.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
Michigan - Predictions Recap
Score prediction:
Iowa - 38 38
Michigan - 21 28
Other predictions:
Stanzi throws for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns (248 yards 3 TD's)
Robinson rushes for 100+ yards and a TD (143 yards 2 TD's)
McNutt has 100+ yards receiving and a TD (78 yards 0 TD)
DJK sets the receiving record with 75+ yards and a TD (70 yards 3 TD)
Reisner is a main target with 6 catches and a TD (2 rec 0 TD)
Iowa turns the ball over twice (0)
Michigan turns the ball over five times (4)
Denard Robinson runs the ball for 100+ yards with a TD, but fumbles once and throws 3 INT's (106 yards 0 TD)
Michigan's kicker misses 2 field goals (1 miss)
Iowa records 8 tackles for loss (5)
Friday, October 15, 2010
Iowa vs Michigan Predictions
When Michigan has the ball-
Michigan wants to run the ball, there is no secret about it, they averaging almost 300 yards per game on the ground. They want to establish the run and then safeties start to creep up to support the run, they love to go play-action for a big play, they have six receivers who have made catches of more than 43 yards this season. Denard Robinson is the signal caller for the Wolverines and he is a very dangerous runner and his passing abilities have come a long way since he last played Iowa. He does a great job of the read option and quarterback follow. He seldomly takes a big hit and rarely goes down on initial contact. His passing is helped out a lot by his rushing, Michigan runs an option pass that is tough to stop. The running game is almost exclusively Robinson, Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw have combined to carry the ball 108 times to Robinson's 119. The two main running backs have amassed 560 yards to Robinson's 991, and 106 yards of those yards are on two carries, so 454 yards on 106 carries. The passing attack of the Wolverines is more of an extension of the run, a lot of screens and bubble routes, with short passes and the opportunity for getting the receivers into the open. When they do pass, Roy Roundtree is the primary target, catching 31 passes on the season, the second leading receiver is Darryl Stonum with 15. The offensive line is a smaller more athletic line than what we are accustomed to seeing out of Michigan. They move well and can get the edge on most defenses, however, they haven't played a defense of Iowa's caliber yet. Iowa's front four should be able to handle the Michigan offensive line, what Michigan will try to do is spread out the Iowa linebackers to create running lanes.
When Iowa has the ball-
Michigan has for the lack of a better word, a terrible defense. Since Rich Rodriguez got there they have had arguably the worst three defenses ever at Michigan. They run a 3-3-5 defense and really aren't able to stop either the run or the pass. Their defensive lineman are good, but with a three man front, you want them to eat up blockers, not make plays. Iowa should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. Like most games, Iowa will come out running the ball and short passes, setting the defense up for the play-action pass.
What will happen-
Iowa will start the game of offense and move the ball well, but ultimately punt on their first drive. Look for Michigan to sputter on offense and go three and out on their first drive. At the end of the first quarter Iowa will lead 7-0. The second quarter is where a lot of the scoring will take place and going into halftime it will be Iowa 17-14. The second half has been owned by Iowa the last season and a half, outscoring their opponents 249-95 in the last 18 games, that is an average of just over five points a game given up in the second half. Iowa will continue that trend and pull away in the second half.
Score prediction:
Iowa - 38
Michigan - 21
Other predictions:
Stanzi throws for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns
Robinson rushes for 100+ yards and a TD
McNutt has 100+ yards receiving and a TD
DJK sets the receiving record with 75+ yards and a TD
Reisner is a main target with 6 catches and a TD
Iowa turns the ball over twice
Michigan turns the ball over five times
Denard Robinson runs the ball for 100+ yards with a TD, but fumbles once and throws 3 INT's
Michigan's kicker misses 2 field goals
Iowa records 8 tackles for loss
Michigan wants to run the ball, there is no secret about it, they averaging almost 300 yards per game on the ground. They want to establish the run and then safeties start to creep up to support the run, they love to go play-action for a big play, they have six receivers who have made catches of more than 43 yards this season. Denard Robinson is the signal caller for the Wolverines and he is a very dangerous runner and his passing abilities have come a long way since he last played Iowa. He does a great job of the read option and quarterback follow. He seldomly takes a big hit and rarely goes down on initial contact. His passing is helped out a lot by his rushing, Michigan runs an option pass that is tough to stop. The running game is almost exclusively Robinson, Vincent Smith and Michael Shaw have combined to carry the ball 108 times to Robinson's 119. The two main running backs have amassed 560 yards to Robinson's 991, and 106 yards of those yards are on two carries, so 454 yards on 106 carries. The passing attack of the Wolverines is more of an extension of the run, a lot of screens and bubble routes, with short passes and the opportunity for getting the receivers into the open. When they do pass, Roy Roundtree is the primary target, catching 31 passes on the season, the second leading receiver is Darryl Stonum with 15. The offensive line is a smaller more athletic line than what we are accustomed to seeing out of Michigan. They move well and can get the edge on most defenses, however, they haven't played a defense of Iowa's caliber yet. Iowa's front four should be able to handle the Michigan offensive line, what Michigan will try to do is spread out the Iowa linebackers to create running lanes.
When Iowa has the ball-
Michigan has for the lack of a better word, a terrible defense. Since Rich Rodriguez got there they have had arguably the worst three defenses ever at Michigan. They run a 3-3-5 defense and really aren't able to stop either the run or the pass. Their defensive lineman are good, but with a three man front, you want them to eat up blockers, not make plays. Iowa should be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. Like most games, Iowa will come out running the ball and short passes, setting the defense up for the play-action pass.
What will happen-
Iowa will start the game of offense and move the ball well, but ultimately punt on their first drive. Look for Michigan to sputter on offense and go three and out on their first drive. At the end of the first quarter Iowa will lead 7-0. The second quarter is where a lot of the scoring will take place and going into halftime it will be Iowa 17-14. The second half has been owned by Iowa the last season and a half, outscoring their opponents 249-95 in the last 18 games, that is an average of just over five points a game given up in the second half. Iowa will continue that trend and pull away in the second half.
Score prediction:
Iowa - 38
Michigan - 21
Other predictions:
Stanzi throws for 300+ yards and 3 touchdowns
Robinson rushes for 100+ yards and a TD
McNutt has 100+ yards receiving and a TD
DJK sets the receiving record with 75+ yards and a TD
Reisner is a main target with 6 catches and a TD
Iowa turns the ball over twice
Michigan turns the ball over five times
Denard Robinson runs the ball for 100+ yards with a TD, but fumbles once and throws 3 INT's
Michigan's kicker misses 2 field goals
Iowa records 8 tackles for loss
Michigan - Ten things to watch
Iowa makes its first trip to the newly renovated "Big House" on Saturday where they will play in front of the largest ever crowd to witness an Iowa football game, here are ten things to watch for:
- Can the Iowa front 7 contain Denard Robinson? If you are a college football fan, you have heard about Denard Robinson this season and rightfully so, he has been impressive so far this season. Last week he was "contained," and he still accounted for 301 total yards. Last year when he was in Iowa City, he was one dimensional, this year he has become a better passer, not allowing opposing defenses to load the box. For Iowa to win on Saturday, they need to be able to stop the run with the front 7, if they rely on the safeties to make plays against the run, Robinson will beat them with the play-action.
- Michigan's front six. So far this season, the Michigan front has provided very little in resistance to the rush or pass. For Michigan to have a chance, the front six, yes they play a 3-3-5 defense, will have to be able to slow down the run and put pressure on Ricky Stanzi. If they can't do that, a secondary that ranks 119 out of 120 division one teams against the pass, will have a long game.
- Strength vs strength. Michigan's strength is their run game, 6th nationally, and Iowa's defensive strength is stopping the run, 2nd nationally. For Michigan's offense to run the way head coach Rich Rodriguez want it to, they need to be able to run the ball and use play action pass. For Iowa's defense to be successful, they need to be able to stop the run with their front seven and rely on their defensive backs to stop the pass.
- Different formations. Every fan of Iowa knows that the defense wants to stay in base formation, sometimes they do this at a detriment to the defensive players ability. Michigan will spread out the Hawkeye defense trying to create mis-matches for Denard Robinson and their wide receivers. Robinson's favorite target, Roy Roundtree operates primarily out of the slot and Iowa will match up with a linebacker over him. If they can exploit Roundtree's speed advantage, it could force Iowa to bring in a nickel package and open itself up to the run.
- Stanzi against one of the worst. Right now the Michigan defense is 119 out of 120 teams in pass defense, Ricky Stanzi is one of the best passers in the Big Ten. That is a recipe for disaster if you are a Michigan fan, you might think, blitz Stanzi, but this season Ricky is completing 78.8% of his passes against the blitz. If Iowa can establish the run on Saturday, you could see several deep play action passes succeed.
- Iowa needs an early lead. You can almost guarantee it that Iowa will start out of offense, this season they have taken the ball first in all five games and scored in three of the games. When Iowa can get the lead in games, they can impose their strength on the opponents, which is the offensive and defensive lines. On the road an early lead can really take the crowd out of the game, Michigan is not the loudest of stadiums anyways, and if Iowa can jump out to an early lead, it will really take the home field advantage away.
- Two weeks of rest vs. playing a heated rivalry game. Iowa will come into this game off of their bye week, which gave them time to heal some of their injured starters. Michigan comes into this game having played their instate rival last week in what was a very hard fought game. We have seen in the past that when Iowa's coaches are given time to game plan against a team, they can shut them down. Michigan has been a one trick pony so far this season, it is a pretty safe bet that Iowa's defensive game plan is to shut down Robinson.
- Turnovers. Last year, Michigan turned the ball over five times to Iowa's one. For Michigan to have a chance, they will have to win the turnover battle. Iowa is too good of a team to lose the turnover battle and expect to win.
- Can anyone make a kick? Michigan's two kickers on the season are a combined 2 for 7 with a long of 34 yards, Iowa's kickers are 2-3 with a long of 25. If the outcome of the game comes down to a field goal, I don't think that either coach feels comfortable. In a fourth and short situation, look for both coaches go for it rather than attempt a long field goal.
- Iowa defensive backs tackling. Michigan boasts the best receiver corps that Iowa has faced all season. The Wolverines love to run wide receiver screens and several plays to get their receivers with the ball in space. This season the Iowa defensive backs have done an okay job of tackling, but on several occasions they have not wrapped up. If the receivers are not taken down with first contact, they can cause havoc for the Iowa defense. Helping the receivers for Michigan will be the fact that the Iowa safeties will be concerned with stopping the running of Denard Robinson.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Michigan Stat Comparison and Notes
- The Iowa Hawkeyes are the only Division 1 football team to not give up a rushing touchdown this season
- Iowa is 5-3 when visiting Michigan for homecoming
- Iowa's only overtime loss ever was against Michigan in 2005
- The series is lopsided all time (40-11-4) in favor of Michigan, but the last six have been split
- Iowa opponents are only 6 -12 in the red zone this year, giving up 4 touchdowns and 2 field goals
- DJK needs 66 yards to become the all time leader in receiving yards at Iowa
- He also needs 9 catches to have the reception record at Iowa
- Iowa is 7-2 in their last nine games away from Iowa City
- Last player to rush for over 200 yards against Iowa was TJ Duckett in 2000 (Robinson has gone over 200 three times this season)
- Iowa has 10 offensive plays over 30 yards this season, their opponents have had 5
- The Iowa defense has caused a 3 and out 40% of their opponents drives this season
- Iowa is converting 46% of third downs this season, their opponents have converted 28%
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
What we know and don't know about Iowa
Iowa had the bye week last week, which was good timing for Iowa as they had injuries in key positions and the extra week of practice gave the injuries and extra week to heal and the young reserves key practice reps. Now that the bye week is over, the Hawkeyes will begin their quest for a Big Ten title, here are some things we learned in the first five games.
What we know:
The defense is as good as was expected. Through the first six weeks of the college season the Iowa defense is first in scoring defense, second in rushing defense, and fourth in total defense. They haven't played any offenses yet that are that great, but you don't get those stat rankings unless you have a solid defense. The fact that Iowa has done this despite every unit having key players miss substantial time. The defensive line has been dominant, to a casual observer the stats haven't been great, but ask any offensive coordinator that has played Iowa and they will speak highly about the defensive line's disruption. The coaches have done a great job of rotating the lineman as well, which will help keep the lineman fresh as the season progresses. The linebacker core has probably been the most effected by injury. Starting middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian has been hampered by stingers the last several games and his backup Bruce Davis has been lost for the season with a knee injury. Against Penn State, true freshman James Morris manned the middle and did a great job, easing the coaching staff's concern about a backup to Tarpinian. Jerimiah Hunter has not missed a beat on the weak side and Tyler Nielsen has looked like a clone of his mentor, A.J. Edds. The defensive backfield has like usual been reliable, they won't play bump and run coverage or man coverage for that matter, but when an opposing quarterback makes a mistake, the defensive backs are ready and waiting.
"It" has finally clicked for Ricky Stanzi. Last year he showed flashes of greatness followed by throws that make you wonder what he was thinking. This year he has played like a fifth year senior and has been rewarded by having the number 3 passing efficiency in the nation. Ricky has made great decisions with the ball this season and takes what the defense has been giving him. Unlike his predecessors at quarterback, he doesn't seem to have a favorite target or force the ball into a certain receiver. What has stood out to me the most this season is that Stanzi has put his team in position to win with great audibles.
The receivers are a talented group. Every single receiver has a role with this team. You have Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who will graduate from Iowa as the all time leader in receptions and yards. DJK as he is known, is a sure handed receiver that seems to run a lot of Iowa's intermediate to deep routes. Iowa's second leading receiver this season is Marvin McNutt, Marvin is Iowa's deep threat, he has mastered the crossing route in his one plus year as a receiver. McNutt's greatest strength might be in the red zone, where his size and leaping ability make him a prime target. Tight end Allan Reisner is the latest in the long line of great tight ends. His progression from primarily a blocker to a sure handed pass catcher over the last four years has been remarkable. Although the previous three are the main targets of Stanzi, Colin Sandeman is a solid possession receiver, Keenan Davis is a great reserve that can fill in for both McNutt and DJK. One element of the passing attach that hasn't been seen for several years is the running back. Adam Robinson has hauled in seven catches on the season and averaged over 20 yards per catch.
What we don't know:
The offensive line. Going into the season, this is the one position that people could point to as a possible problem position for the Hawks. Through the first five games, this unit has done nothing to make you feel any different. In the Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, and Ball State games, the offensive line has looked very good, but they were playing inferior talent. In the Penn State game, they looked great in the first half and then very average in the second half. Most of that had to do with Iowa abandoning the pass and Penn State stacking the box with eight or nine defenders. The one game that gave this unit the most fits was the Arizona game. Arizona's strategy was to live and die by the blitz and that strategy was helped by the early lead that Arizona built up. Iowa was forced to abandon the run and allowed the Arizona defenders get into their track stance and rush the quarterback. If Iowa can keep a balanced attack, the offensive line will be fine, but when the defense knows what the offense has to do, this offensive line isn't good enough to dominate.
A backup running back. Coming into the season, Iowa had too many backs and not enough carries. After five games they have plenty of carries and need more backs to carry them. Adam Robinson is a top 30 nationally running back through five games and can carry the ball, but he has no proven backup. Both Marcus Coker and Brad Rodgers got carries in the blow out victory against Ball State, but Kirk Ferentz showed his hand a little bit in the Penn State game when the game was in hand and he didn't bring in the backups. One thing that all running backs have to do at Iowa to see the field is block and that could be a problem that both Coker and Rodgers have, relying on one of these two against the blitz to protect Ricky Stanzi is not something Ferentz wants to do. If Iowa is going to turn this season into a Big Ten Championship year, they will have to find a backup running back that can give Robinson a break a couple series a game.
Who is the kicker. As Iowa fans, we were spoiled for a six or seven year span when we had Kaeding and Schlicher, both very good kickers. This year Daniel Murray has been hurt and not seen the field, Trent Mossbrucker is not right between the ears, and Iowa is relying on true freshman walk-on Michael Meyer. When the pressure is on how will Meyer respond? We have seen that he has the distance to make any kick, but is only 1 of 2 on the year. When Murray is healthy, does he get the job back? At some point this season, Iowa will trot their kicker out to attempt a meaningful kick and that thought worries me with the current state of the kickers.
What we know:
The defense is as good as was expected. Through the first six weeks of the college season the Iowa defense is first in scoring defense, second in rushing defense, and fourth in total defense. They haven't played any offenses yet that are that great, but you don't get those stat rankings unless you have a solid defense. The fact that Iowa has done this despite every unit having key players miss substantial time. The defensive line has been dominant, to a casual observer the stats haven't been great, but ask any offensive coordinator that has played Iowa and they will speak highly about the defensive line's disruption. The coaches have done a great job of rotating the lineman as well, which will help keep the lineman fresh as the season progresses. The linebacker core has probably been the most effected by injury. Starting middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian has been hampered by stingers the last several games and his backup Bruce Davis has been lost for the season with a knee injury. Against Penn State, true freshman James Morris manned the middle and did a great job, easing the coaching staff's concern about a backup to Tarpinian. Jerimiah Hunter has not missed a beat on the weak side and Tyler Nielsen has looked like a clone of his mentor, A.J. Edds. The defensive backfield has like usual been reliable, they won't play bump and run coverage or man coverage for that matter, but when an opposing quarterback makes a mistake, the defensive backs are ready and waiting.
"It" has finally clicked for Ricky Stanzi. Last year he showed flashes of greatness followed by throws that make you wonder what he was thinking. This year he has played like a fifth year senior and has been rewarded by having the number 3 passing efficiency in the nation. Ricky has made great decisions with the ball this season and takes what the defense has been giving him. Unlike his predecessors at quarterback, he doesn't seem to have a favorite target or force the ball into a certain receiver. What has stood out to me the most this season is that Stanzi has put his team in position to win with great audibles.
The receivers are a talented group. Every single receiver has a role with this team. You have Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who will graduate from Iowa as the all time leader in receptions and yards. DJK as he is known, is a sure handed receiver that seems to run a lot of Iowa's intermediate to deep routes. Iowa's second leading receiver this season is Marvin McNutt, Marvin is Iowa's deep threat, he has mastered the crossing route in his one plus year as a receiver. McNutt's greatest strength might be in the red zone, where his size and leaping ability make him a prime target. Tight end Allan Reisner is the latest in the long line of great tight ends. His progression from primarily a blocker to a sure handed pass catcher over the last four years has been remarkable. Although the previous three are the main targets of Stanzi, Colin Sandeman is a solid possession receiver, Keenan Davis is a great reserve that can fill in for both McNutt and DJK. One element of the passing attach that hasn't been seen for several years is the running back. Adam Robinson has hauled in seven catches on the season and averaged over 20 yards per catch.
What we don't know:
The offensive line. Going into the season, this is the one position that people could point to as a possible problem position for the Hawks. Through the first five games, this unit has done nothing to make you feel any different. In the Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, and Ball State games, the offensive line has looked very good, but they were playing inferior talent. In the Penn State game, they looked great in the first half and then very average in the second half. Most of that had to do with Iowa abandoning the pass and Penn State stacking the box with eight or nine defenders. The one game that gave this unit the most fits was the Arizona game. Arizona's strategy was to live and die by the blitz and that strategy was helped by the early lead that Arizona built up. Iowa was forced to abandon the run and allowed the Arizona defenders get into their track stance and rush the quarterback. If Iowa can keep a balanced attack, the offensive line will be fine, but when the defense knows what the offense has to do, this offensive line isn't good enough to dominate.
A backup running back. Coming into the season, Iowa had too many backs and not enough carries. After five games they have plenty of carries and need more backs to carry them. Adam Robinson is a top 30 nationally running back through five games and can carry the ball, but he has no proven backup. Both Marcus Coker and Brad Rodgers got carries in the blow out victory against Ball State, but Kirk Ferentz showed his hand a little bit in the Penn State game when the game was in hand and he didn't bring in the backups. One thing that all running backs have to do at Iowa to see the field is block and that could be a problem that both Coker and Rodgers have, relying on one of these two against the blitz to protect Ricky Stanzi is not something Ferentz wants to do. If Iowa is going to turn this season into a Big Ten Championship year, they will have to find a backup running back that can give Robinson a break a couple series a game.
Who is the kicker. As Iowa fans, we were spoiled for a six or seven year span when we had Kaeding and Schlicher, both very good kickers. This year Daniel Murray has been hurt and not seen the field, Trent Mossbrucker is not right between the ears, and Iowa is relying on true freshman walk-on Michael Meyer. When the pressure is on how will Meyer respond? We have seen that he has the distance to make any kick, but is only 1 of 2 on the year. When Murray is healthy, does he get the job back? At some point this season, Iowa will trot their kicker out to attempt a meaningful kick and that thought worries me with the current state of the kickers.
Monday, October 4, 2010
Penn State Predictions Recap
Predictions:
Iowa - 31 (24)
Penn State - 17 (3)
Stanzi will pick apart the Nittany Lion defense to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TD's (227 yards 1 TD)
Robinson will find running tough, but still gain 70+ yards and a TD (95 yards 0 TD)
DJK will set the career receiving yardage mark with 130+ yards and a TD (64 yards 1 TD)
McNutt comes back after missing most of last week with 75+ yards and a TD (93 yards 0 TD)
Reisner has 6 catches and a TD (3 catches 0 TD)
The Nittany Lions will tally 3+ sacks (1)
Iowa will control the line of scrimmage, limiting Penn State to less than 80 yards on the ground (54 yards)
Iowa will force four turnovers (1)
Iowa gets a pick 6 (Yes)
Penn State returns a kick for a TD (No)
Iowa - 31 (24)
Penn State - 17 (3)
Stanzi will pick apart the Nittany Lion defense to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TD's (227 yards 1 TD)
Robinson will find running tough, but still gain 70+ yards and a TD (95 yards 0 TD)
DJK will set the career receiving yardage mark with 130+ yards and a TD (64 yards 1 TD)
McNutt comes back after missing most of last week with 75+ yards and a TD (93 yards 0 TD)
Reisner has 6 catches and a TD (3 catches 0 TD)
The Nittany Lions will tally 3+ sacks (1)
Iowa will control the line of scrimmage, limiting Penn State to less than 80 yards on the ground (54 yards)
Iowa will force four turnovers (1)
Iowa gets a pick 6 (Yes)
Penn State returns a kick for a TD (No)
Friday, October 1, 2010
Iowa vs Penn State Predictions
When Penn State has the ball:
The offense that Penn State runs this season isn't all that different from Iowa's. They run a lot of isolation and zone run plays and they seldom have four or five receivers. Their quarterback is young, but talented. He will sit in the pocket and take a lot of hits, but his ability to run and a quick release keep him from getting sacked. The offensive line isn't great and took a big hit last week when their starting right tackle, Lou Eliades, was lost due to injury. Their two tackles have a combined four collegiate starts and will be facing one of the best defensive lines in the nation, not a good combination for Penn State fans. Penn State knows that running between the tackles is a tough task against Iowa, look for them to try and gain the edge with option and stretch plays. When Stephfon Green (#21) comes into the game, his speed could give Iowa problems and the Nittany Lions like to get him on the edge to use that speed. The Penn State receivers are all talented, however, there isn't a single one that is featured more, they spread the ball around. When he is pressed, Bolden will look to #83 Brett Brackett, who is tied for the team lead with 15 catches. Penn State is very dangerous on the punt return, Green is the returner and gets up to top speed very quickly, Donahue will have to do a good job of hanging his punts up to give his coverage team time to get down the field.
When Iowa has the ball:
Penn State runs a base 4-3 defense and will stay in this defense almost the entire game, just like Iowa would do. Their defense is very fast flowing, meaning that they go with the flow of the offensive line hard, leaving them susceptible to play action and boots. Penn State will bring the blitz from both their linebackers and corners, but they show this very early and Temple had great success checking to new plays. The other thing that opens up with fast flow defenses is the cutback, Iowa's zone running could mean huge cutback lanes for Robinson. The defense's weak point is against the run, they are giving up 117 yards per game on the ground and Alabama was able to rack up 180 yards on the ground. Look for Iowa to balance the run and pass well, starting with the run and short passes and then moving more to the play action pass once the defensive backs have started coming up in run support.
What will happen:
The atmosphere will be amazing and look for Iowa to feed off of that and score on their first drive. You will see Adam Robinson, but the pass will be Ken O'Keefe's choice, utilizing the short passing game down the field. The Iowa defense will come out and dominate the line of scrimmage like all fans have come accustomed to them doing this season. Royster will find the holes few and far between and Penn State will be forced to look for yardage elsewhere. The first half will be very back and forth with Iowa holding a 14-10 lead at halftime. Halftime is the place where the Iowa coaches have earned their salaries the last two seasons as Iowa has outscored those 17 opponents 242-95 in the second half, keeping 13 of the 17 opponents to 7 points or less in the second half. Look for Iowa to impose its will in the second half both on offense and defense, cruising to a comfortable win.
Predictions:
Iowa - 31
Penn State - 17
Stanzi will pick apart the Nittany Lion defense to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TD's
Robinson will find running tough, but still gain 70+ yards and a TD
DJK will set the career receiving yardage mark with 130+ yards and a TD
McNutt comes back after missing most of last week with 75+ yards and a TD
Reisner has 6 catches and a TD
The Nittany Lions will tally 3+ sacks
Iowa will control the line of scrimmage, limiting Penn State to less than 80 yards on the ground
Iowa will force four turnovers
Iowa gets a pick 6
Penn State returns a kick for a TD
The offense that Penn State runs this season isn't all that different from Iowa's. They run a lot of isolation and zone run plays and they seldom have four or five receivers. Their quarterback is young, but talented. He will sit in the pocket and take a lot of hits, but his ability to run and a quick release keep him from getting sacked. The offensive line isn't great and took a big hit last week when their starting right tackle, Lou Eliades, was lost due to injury. Their two tackles have a combined four collegiate starts and will be facing one of the best defensive lines in the nation, not a good combination for Penn State fans. Penn State knows that running between the tackles is a tough task against Iowa, look for them to try and gain the edge with option and stretch plays. When Stephfon Green (#21) comes into the game, his speed could give Iowa problems and the Nittany Lions like to get him on the edge to use that speed. The Penn State receivers are all talented, however, there isn't a single one that is featured more, they spread the ball around. When he is pressed, Bolden will look to #83 Brett Brackett, who is tied for the team lead with 15 catches. Penn State is very dangerous on the punt return, Green is the returner and gets up to top speed very quickly, Donahue will have to do a good job of hanging his punts up to give his coverage team time to get down the field.
When Iowa has the ball:
Penn State runs a base 4-3 defense and will stay in this defense almost the entire game, just like Iowa would do. Their defense is very fast flowing, meaning that they go with the flow of the offensive line hard, leaving them susceptible to play action and boots. Penn State will bring the blitz from both their linebackers and corners, but they show this very early and Temple had great success checking to new plays. The other thing that opens up with fast flow defenses is the cutback, Iowa's zone running could mean huge cutback lanes for Robinson. The defense's weak point is against the run, they are giving up 117 yards per game on the ground and Alabama was able to rack up 180 yards on the ground. Look for Iowa to balance the run and pass well, starting with the run and short passes and then moving more to the play action pass once the defensive backs have started coming up in run support.
What will happen:
The atmosphere will be amazing and look for Iowa to feed off of that and score on their first drive. You will see Adam Robinson, but the pass will be Ken O'Keefe's choice, utilizing the short passing game down the field. The Iowa defense will come out and dominate the line of scrimmage like all fans have come accustomed to them doing this season. Royster will find the holes few and far between and Penn State will be forced to look for yardage elsewhere. The first half will be very back and forth with Iowa holding a 14-10 lead at halftime. Halftime is the place where the Iowa coaches have earned their salaries the last two seasons as Iowa has outscored those 17 opponents 242-95 in the second half, keeping 13 of the 17 opponents to 7 points or less in the second half. Look for Iowa to impose its will in the second half both on offense and defense, cruising to a comfortable win.
Predictions:
Iowa - 31
Penn State - 17
Stanzi will pick apart the Nittany Lion defense to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TD's
Robinson will find running tough, but still gain 70+ yards and a TD
DJK will set the career receiving yardage mark with 130+ yards and a TD
McNutt comes back after missing most of last week with 75+ yards and a TD
Reisner has 6 catches and a TD
The Nittany Lions will tally 3+ sacks
Iowa will control the line of scrimmage, limiting Penn State to less than 80 yards on the ground
Iowa will force four turnovers
Iowa gets a pick 6
Penn State returns a kick for a TD
Penn State - 10 things to watch
Iowa kicks off the Big Ten Schedule by hosting Penn State in historic Kinnick Stadium. Below are ten things to look for Saturday night:
1. What is the halftime score? This season, Iowa has only allowed 14 second half points in 8 quarters and 7 of those were by Iowa State against Iowa's third string. If Iowa can hold the lead at halftime, the chances of Penn State coming back are slim. Iowa is a team that is built to play with the lead, they use their size to lean on teams offensively and wear them down and on defense when a team becomes one dimensional, the Iowa coaches can take that away.
2. Who will be able to run? Penn State has found the ground game hard to come by so far this season. Last week against Temple they were able to amass, 216 yards on 46 carries. They need to be able to run, because Evan Royster is their best offensive player and if he isn't producing, it makes for long days for Penn State. They will be matched up against a defense that suffocates the run, only allowing 65 yards per game. If Iowa can stop the Nittany Lions on the ground, it will put the pressure on true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden, I like Iowa's chances if that happens. On the other side, Iowa's whole offense is predicated on being able to run the ball. Penn State's entire defense is a fast flow defense that is very susceptible to the play action and waggle plays that Iowa loves to run. If Iowa can have some success on the ground, it opens up the play-action pass that Ricky Stanzi has thrived on this season. If Penn State forces Iowa in to known passing situations, their defense is good enough to get to Stanzi, especially when the Hawkeyes are giving up over 2 sacks a game on average this season.
3. Iowa's defensive line needs to control the line of scrimmage. Last year, the Penn State game was the coming out party for Iowa's defensive front, they totaled 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. Those numbers don't look dominating, but ask Daryll Clark how many times he got hit last year. That was against a pretty good offensive line, this year going into the season Penn State's assistant coach Joe Paterno called the offensive line play "very, very average." That was before they lost their starting right tackle to injury, which means that their two starting tackles have a combined total of 4 collegiate starts. The Nittany Lion offensive line doesn't give up many sacks, but that has more to do with Bolden's legs and quick release than it does them. If Iowa can get pressure with just their front four, Iowa's back 7 will have a field day with the true freshman quarterback.
4. Kicking is a concern. Kickers are a concern for both teams, but on opposite ends of the spectrum. Iowa has only attempted 2 field goals on the season, both last week, while Penn State has already attempted 12 kicks. Michael Meyer has taken over for the Hawkeyes and is the only one with attempts this season, going 1-2. Collin Wagner is the kicker for Penn State and has been very good, only missing two all season. Iowa is concerned with a lack of experience, while Penn State is concerned with too much experience. Penn State fans remember all to well what happened last time they played in Iowa City, the offense struggled in the Red Zone and had to kick 3 field goals, while Iowa finished their drives with touchdowns and knocked off the highly ranked Nittany Lions. If this game comes down to field goals, the advantage is in the Penn State corner.
5. How will Robinson fare in the Big Ten? The Big Ten conference is stereotyped as big, slow, running teams, while part of that is absurd, the fact that it is a punishing conference isn't. Adam Robinson was able to make it through the non-conference without getting nicked up, however now that his backups are unproven, his health could be the determining factor of a Big Ten Championship and middle of the pack finish. Last year the league schedule took its toll on Adam and he was really beat up by the end of the regular season, this year, that can't happen.
6. Blitz pickup. No doubt that Penn State watched the Arizona game film and saw how they reeked havoc on the Iowa offensive line with blitzes. Penn State can blitz and has very athletic linebackers and will also bring the pressure from the corner position. The problem they had with this in the Temple game is that they were telegraphing it and the Temple quarterback did a great job of audibling to a play to counter the blitz. Iowa is not a team that usually gets to the line with a lot of time to go on the play clock and could get burnt by this. Against Arizona, Stanzi just missed on a couple long passes against the blitz, if against Penn State he can convert these, it will go a long way to slowing down their defense.
7. Home field advantage. Iowa has one of the better home win percentages over the last five years in the entire nation and the team will need the fans as much as ever Saturday night. The stadium will look very cool if the fans all follow the instructions and wear the color they are supposed to, if you are unsure, go to http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092610aak.html. The last true night game that Iowa had against a ranked opponent was in 2006 against Ohio State, the atmosphere was electric that night and the fans need to have a night like that again to help this team to a victory. Other than the game, Iowa has a ton of recruits coming in for this weekend and a great atmosphere is huge in a seventeen or eighteen year old's decision on where he wants to attend.
8. Avoid the "big play." Last year the first play from scrimmage for Penn State was a long touchdown pass. This year one of the first plays against Arizona was a blocked punt. Iowa cannot afford to get in a hole against teams of Penn State's caliber, because we all saw what happened when Iowa got behind against Arizona. Iowa has only allowed 3 opponents out of the last 30 score on their opening drive and need to continue that streak. Iowa's defense has proven that it is not easy to go the length of the field on them, you can dink and dunk your way down the field, but at some point you will make a mistake and Iowa is opportunistic. Two times has the first team defense given up drives this year, against Eastern Illinois a fake punt helped the drive and Arizona had a deep pass help theirs. If Iowa can force the true freshman quarterback to make short passes, at some point he will get greedy and that is where Sash and Greenwood show up.
9. Turnovers will be a key component. On the season, Iowa is +1 with turnovers, Penn State is -.5. In their only other game against a quality opponent, Penn State had three fumbles and three interceptions against Alabama. They only lost one of those fumbles, but Royster also put the ball on the turf twice last week. With Iowa's swarming defense, look for Royster to fumble again. Bolden throws a nice ball and usually takes the short pass as opposed to the long one, but he gets hit and knocked down a lot. Once you get hit that many times, your passes are affected.
10. Can Ricky keep it up? So far we have seen a different Ricky Stanzi this season. He has made good decisions and kept his team out of trouble. This weekend will be a tough defense and they will bring the pressure on him. If he can get time, their defensive backs are not the most skilled. The key to how Ricky will do will be if Iowa can get the running game going, if they can run the ball it opens up play action and waggle plays the are Iowa's bread and butter. Another thing to look for are double moves, Iowa is well known for their outs early in the game, look for an out and up early in the game to loosen up the safeties.
1. What is the halftime score? This season, Iowa has only allowed 14 second half points in 8 quarters and 7 of those were by Iowa State against Iowa's third string. If Iowa can hold the lead at halftime, the chances of Penn State coming back are slim. Iowa is a team that is built to play with the lead, they use their size to lean on teams offensively and wear them down and on defense when a team becomes one dimensional, the Iowa coaches can take that away.
2. Who will be able to run? Penn State has found the ground game hard to come by so far this season. Last week against Temple they were able to amass, 216 yards on 46 carries. They need to be able to run, because Evan Royster is their best offensive player and if he isn't producing, it makes for long days for Penn State. They will be matched up against a defense that suffocates the run, only allowing 65 yards per game. If Iowa can stop the Nittany Lions on the ground, it will put the pressure on true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden, I like Iowa's chances if that happens. On the other side, Iowa's whole offense is predicated on being able to run the ball. Penn State's entire defense is a fast flow defense that is very susceptible to the play action and waggle plays that Iowa loves to run. If Iowa can have some success on the ground, it opens up the play-action pass that Ricky Stanzi has thrived on this season. If Penn State forces Iowa in to known passing situations, their defense is good enough to get to Stanzi, especially when the Hawkeyes are giving up over 2 sacks a game on average this season.
3. Iowa's defensive line needs to control the line of scrimmage. Last year, the Penn State game was the coming out party for Iowa's defensive front, they totaled 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks. Those numbers don't look dominating, but ask Daryll Clark how many times he got hit last year. That was against a pretty good offensive line, this year going into the season Penn State's assistant coach Joe Paterno called the offensive line play "very, very average." That was before they lost their starting right tackle to injury, which means that their two starting tackles have a combined total of 4 collegiate starts. The Nittany Lion offensive line doesn't give up many sacks, but that has more to do with Bolden's legs and quick release than it does them. If Iowa can get pressure with just their front four, Iowa's back 7 will have a field day with the true freshman quarterback.
4. Kicking is a concern. Kickers are a concern for both teams, but on opposite ends of the spectrum. Iowa has only attempted 2 field goals on the season, both last week, while Penn State has already attempted 12 kicks. Michael Meyer has taken over for the Hawkeyes and is the only one with attempts this season, going 1-2. Collin Wagner is the kicker for Penn State and has been very good, only missing two all season. Iowa is concerned with a lack of experience, while Penn State is concerned with too much experience. Penn State fans remember all to well what happened last time they played in Iowa City, the offense struggled in the Red Zone and had to kick 3 field goals, while Iowa finished their drives with touchdowns and knocked off the highly ranked Nittany Lions. If this game comes down to field goals, the advantage is in the Penn State corner.
5. How will Robinson fare in the Big Ten? The Big Ten conference is stereotyped as big, slow, running teams, while part of that is absurd, the fact that it is a punishing conference isn't. Adam Robinson was able to make it through the non-conference without getting nicked up, however now that his backups are unproven, his health could be the determining factor of a Big Ten Championship and middle of the pack finish. Last year the league schedule took its toll on Adam and he was really beat up by the end of the regular season, this year, that can't happen.
6. Blitz pickup. No doubt that Penn State watched the Arizona game film and saw how they reeked havoc on the Iowa offensive line with blitzes. Penn State can blitz and has very athletic linebackers and will also bring the pressure from the corner position. The problem they had with this in the Temple game is that they were telegraphing it and the Temple quarterback did a great job of audibling to a play to counter the blitz. Iowa is not a team that usually gets to the line with a lot of time to go on the play clock and could get burnt by this. Against Arizona, Stanzi just missed on a couple long passes against the blitz, if against Penn State he can convert these, it will go a long way to slowing down their defense.
7. Home field advantage. Iowa has one of the better home win percentages over the last five years in the entire nation and the team will need the fans as much as ever Saturday night. The stadium will look very cool if the fans all follow the instructions and wear the color they are supposed to, if you are unsure, go to http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092610aak.html. The last true night game that Iowa had against a ranked opponent was in 2006 against Ohio State, the atmosphere was electric that night and the fans need to have a night like that again to help this team to a victory. Other than the game, Iowa has a ton of recruits coming in for this weekend and a great atmosphere is huge in a seventeen or eighteen year old's decision on where he wants to attend.
8. Avoid the "big play." Last year the first play from scrimmage for Penn State was a long touchdown pass. This year one of the first plays against Arizona was a blocked punt. Iowa cannot afford to get in a hole against teams of Penn State's caliber, because we all saw what happened when Iowa got behind against Arizona. Iowa has only allowed 3 opponents out of the last 30 score on their opening drive and need to continue that streak. Iowa's defense has proven that it is not easy to go the length of the field on them, you can dink and dunk your way down the field, but at some point you will make a mistake and Iowa is opportunistic. Two times has the first team defense given up drives this year, against Eastern Illinois a fake punt helped the drive and Arizona had a deep pass help theirs. If Iowa can force the true freshman quarterback to make short passes, at some point he will get greedy and that is where Sash and Greenwood show up.
9. Turnovers will be a key component. On the season, Iowa is +1 with turnovers, Penn State is -.5. In their only other game against a quality opponent, Penn State had three fumbles and three interceptions against Alabama. They only lost one of those fumbles, but Royster also put the ball on the turf twice last week. With Iowa's swarming defense, look for Royster to fumble again. Bolden throws a nice ball and usually takes the short pass as opposed to the long one, but he gets hit and knocked down a lot. Once you get hit that many times, your passes are affected.
10. Can Ricky keep it up? So far we have seen a different Ricky Stanzi this season. He has made good decisions and kept his team out of trouble. This weekend will be a tough defense and they will bring the pressure on him. If he can get time, their defensive backs are not the most skilled. The key to how Ricky will do will be if Iowa can get the running game going, if they can run the ball it opens up play action and waggle plays the are Iowa's bread and butter. Another thing to look for are double moves, Iowa is well known for their outs early in the game, look for an out and up early in the game to loosen up the safeties.
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