Ohio State - Predictions

When Ohio State has the ball -
They are led by one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation in Terrelle Pryor.  Last season, Iowa was able to stymie Pryor, only allowing him to gain 29 yards rushing and 93 passing yards.  However it was Ohio State's running backs that hurt Iowa last year, gaining 200 yards combined on the ground.  This season the Buckeys come to Iowa City with six different players that have carried the ball at least 20 times on the season.  Daniel "Boom" Herron is their primary ball carrier and he is very good and gets many of the carries inside the red zone.  Both Herron and Brandon Saine catch the ball out of the backfield a lot, tallying 13 and 18 catches respectively.  Aside from the running backs, Pryor's favorite targets are Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey, both with 43 catches on the season.  Outside of these two wide receivers, no other wide receiver has ten catches.  The offense that Iowa will face on Saturday is one very similar to their own.  A lot of "I" formation with a TE and two wide.  This week a lot of fans are doom and gloom thinking that after what Persa did to us, Pryor will have a field day, but they are not the same quarterback and the offenses are so different.  Pryor will sit in the pocket more than Persa did last week and when he does scramble he looks to pass more than Persa did.  The play that has me worried is the zone read play, if Pryor makes a good read and pulls the ball he is dangerous when he gets going north and south.  To neutralize him, the Iowa defenders will have to force him to move laterally and wait for the cavalry to bring him down.  The Buckeye offensive line is big, not Wisconsin big, but probably the second best unit that the Iowa defense has played so far this season.  They do however have trouble keeping Pryor upright, allowing on average 2 sacks per game.

When Iowa has the ball -
Ohio State boasts easily the best defense that Iowa has faced this season.  They are littered with NFL talent from the defensive line to the safeties.  While their front four is very solid, much like Iowa's this season, they haven't put up the best of stat lines, being tied for 86th in sacks and 81st in tackles for loss.  Their weak spot from what I could tell was when the opposing quarterback rolls out.  They are very talented in the linebacker corps and will use these players in a variety of ways from blitzing to coverage.  They had some trouble last week against Penn State when they ran the stretch play on cut backs, so look for Iowa to exploit that on Saturday.

What will happen -
Iowa has performed really well in games coming off of their previous two losses this season outscoring their opponents 86-7.  It's senior day for 26 seniors that if they win out will tie the Iowa record for wins in a three year stretch.  Dan Gable is the honorary captain this week and you figure that the team will come out motivated if he gives the pre-game speech.  Look for Iowa to feed off of all of these things and get out to an early lead, a problem that Ohio State has had against conference opponents this season.  The stadium will be loud and the players can help keep it that way by getting an early lead.  Once that initial emotional boost wears off is what concerns me.  Ohio State has been in this position several times already this season and if Iowa gets a lead and then has Ohio State come back, the "not again" thoughts start to creep into the players minds.  Look for the seniors on this squad to finally take the reigns of the team and lead them to a victory.

Predictions-
Iowa - 20
OSU - 17

Predictions -
Stanzi plays solid - 200+ yards 1 TD 1 INT
Robinson continues - 90+ yards 1 TD
For only the 4th time in 24 games, Iowa allows a 100 yard rusher
The Iowa defense records 4 sacks
Iowa blocks a kick
Clayborn gets a sack to seal the victory

Northwestern - Pregame

Looks like no Sandeman today, not only will Iowa miss him as a receiver, but he has proven to be a sure handed punt returner.  Look for Paul Chaney to take over his punt return duties and get his reps as a receiver, but it should be noted that Chaney has as many catches this season as I do, which is zero.  Sandeman has proven to be a security blanket for Stanzi on third down, hopefully this doesn't hurt the Hawkeyes today.

Northwestern - Predictions

When Northwestern has the ball - They will line up with receivers all over the field.  Iowa will probably line up in their base defense for most of the game, which means linebackers in the open.  Northwestern, much like Indiana will dink and dunk their way down the field.  Their type of offense was basically built to play against Iowa's zone defense.  Persa is a good quarterback that makes good decisions most of the time, much like Ben Chappell last week.  He is a runner however, actually, he leads Northwestern in rushing.  He will run out of zone read plays and also quarterback draws.  Northwestern will also run z sweeps to try and get their receivers on the edge.  They will not go down field much with their passing attack and when they are in the red zone they look for Jeremy Ebert, who has hauled in 7 of the team's 13 touchdown receptions.

When Iowa has the ball - Northwestern's defense isn't great at anything, but they also aren't awful at anything.  They are a very average defense, but their pass defense is 100th in the nation, giving up almost 250 yards per game.  Iowa should be able to do whatever they want to do both running and passing.

Predictions:

Iowa 31

Northwestern 17

Ricky Stanzi bounces back with 275+ and 2 TD's

Robinson has 100+ and a TD

Iowa holds NW to less than 50 yards rushing

Demos misses 2 FG's

Iowa gets a big special team return TD

Mike Daniels has 2 TFL's and a sack

Sash gets another INT

Northwestern - 10 things to watch

Iowa makes the short trip to Evanston, IL to battle the Northwestern Wildcats.  Of late, the Wildcats have had a ton of success against the Hawkeyes, winning 4 of the last 5 games.  This week a freshman running back at Northwestern was asked about Iowa and he said that he didn't know much, other than that Coach Fitz, hates them.  He is the new Dan McCarney, he may not get much out of his team, but gets them up for Iowa.  Here are ten things to watch on Saturday:

1. Iowa has to avoid turnovers - The last two years, Iowa has turned the ball over 9 times against Northwestern.  Iowa has to avoid the turnover problem that  has plagued them the last few years.
2. Star players must finish the game - Last year, Iowa was up 10 when Ricky Stanzi went down and Iowa proceeded to lose the game.  Two years ago, Shonn Greene went down with a concussion and Iowa wasn't the same team after he left the game.  If Iowa loses Stanzi or another star this season it could point to the same outcome as the last two years.
3. Iowa defensive line - Northwestern isn't a running team, but when they do run, they run with their quarterback, Dan Persa.  Their passing attack is a quick one and if the linebackers are worried about the run, it keeps them from getting to their drop zones that Northwestern will exploit.  If the front four can contain Persa's running ability, it really helps the linebackers focus on the mass of receivers that Northwestern will throw at them.
4. Kicker - Neither kicker has been great with PAT's, with Meyer missing 2 and Stefan Demos missing 3.  The main difference is Meyer is a freshman and Demos is a Senior, missing PAT's is something a freshman does, not a senior.  
5. Adam Robinson - After missing last week's narrow escape at Indiana, the sophomore running back will be back in the backfield for the Hawks.  Now, Robinson's backup, Marcus Coker, had a great game, but was curiously absent in the red zone and the second half.  There was a direct correlation between that and Kirk Ferentz not being comfortable with Coker's inexperience.  This week, look for Iowa to spell Robinson with Coker to help reduce the wear on an already beaten up body.
6. Mother nature - Looks like the game time weather will be cold and wet.  If it is raining, it helps Iowa a lot, the are the more physical team on both sides of the ball and it isn't even close.  If there is a wet ball, it hampers Northwestern's game plan of short quick passes more than it hurts Iowa's pound the ball style.  If Iowa can get an early lead, they will be able to take the air out of the ball and start to beat up on the Northwestern lines.  If they can do this, the Wildcats could begin to physically wear down.
7. Senior leaders - Iowa's senior class is 1-3 against the Wildcats in their first four years on campus, this team has too many great senior leaders to allow this team to not be ready to play.  The leadership has to know that next week's game doesn't mean anything unless they take care of business on Saturday.
8. Norm - It could just be a coincidence, but Iowa played arguably its best defense of the season against Michigan State, the first game back for defensive coordinator in six weeks.  He missed last week but is making the trip to Evanston this weekend.  No, he has not been that involved in the game plan, but there is no denying his emotional boost to the defense, not to mention that he makes some of the best adjustments on the fly of any defensive coordinator in the nation.
9. Offensive Line - Northwestern loves to blitz, something that Iowa has not had too much trouble with since the Arizona game.  However, the offensive line seemed to take a step back last week, allowing two sacks.  The line is more talented than the Wildcat defense, but talent doesn't always win.
10. James Morris - Morris has stepped into a starting role and even though he is a true freshman, he hasn't even blinked.  He is solid against the run and is great against the pass.  This will be a great test for him as Persa is a running quarterback and Morris might be assigned to him as a spy.  With Northwestern lining up with an empty backfield often, it leaves Persa 1 on 1 with Morris on quarterback draws.  If Morris can hold his own, Iowa will win the game.

Northwestern - Notes

• Iowa has played 5 ranked teams this season, NW has played 1
• One team has fewer turnovers than Iowa this season
• 3 of 100 opponent possessions have began in Iowa territory, NW started 4 possessions in Iowa territory last season
• Northwestern has won 4 of the last five
• Iowa has won 9 of their last 11 games away from Kinnick Stadium
• Points off turnovers this season Iowa-88 Opponents-7
• NW is 6-2 in November games since 2008, Iowa is 5-3
• NW coach Pat Fitzgerald is 18-7 in games decided by 7 points or less

Indiana - Projections Recap

Predictions:

Iowa - 45 (18)

Indiana - 20 (13)

Stanzi has a 300+ yard game and 4 TD's (290 yards 1 TD)

Chappel throws 4 interceptions (1)

Coker runs for more than 150 and 1 TD (129 0 TD)

Iowa creates 6 turnovers (1)

Coker busts a run of more than 50 yards (20)

DJK gets the receptions record and has 2 TD's (record, 0 TD)

Meyer extends his FG streak to 6 straight (Yes)

Indiana is held to negative yards rushing (91)

Indiana - Projections

When Indiana has the ball:
Get ready for the "Pistol" offense, Ben Chappell runs it to perfection.  He has weapons on the outside in Damarlo Belcher, Tandon Doss, and Terrance Turner.  These three receivers are very talented and each of them have the ability to take the ball to the house on each catch.  The Hoosier offense will run a lot of receiver screens and stop patterns forcing the defensive backs to make one on one tackles.  Inside the red zone, Chappell loves to go to his tight end Ted Bolser, who has caught 5 touchdowns this season.  While the passing game is very good, the running game is on the opposite end of the spectrum.  They are not good on the ground, averaging under a hundred yards per game as a team.  The offensive line isn't very good, but they are helped greatly by Chappell making quick decisions and short routes.

When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa will roll into Bloomington with their backup running back looking to get his first collegiate start for the second straight time.  In 2008 Jewel Hampton got his first start and answered with a 114 yards 3 touchdown performance.  Look for Iowa to run the ball with Coker and bring in Brad Rodgers or Brett Morse on known passing situations for pass protection.  The passing attack for Iowa should find plenty of room to operate as Indiana's defense is not good.

What will happen:
Iowa will come out and move the ball at will against the Indiana offense.  Indiana will have a big play early to give their fans hope of an upset.  Look for Iowa to be up 14+ at halftime.  Indiana's offense has some big numbers, but against their toughest defenses they have faced this season they have struggled, throwing 7 interceptions against Illinois and Ohio State.  In the second half, Indiana will find the yardage tough to come by and when they are down, Iowa's defensive will be able to sit on the pass and cause turnover problems.

Predictions:
Iowa - 45
Indiana - 20

Stanzi has a 300+ yard game and 4 TD's
Chappel throws 4 interceptions
Coker runs for more than 150 and 1 TD
Iowa creates 6 turnovers
Coker busts a run of more than 50 yards
DJK gets the receptions record and has 2 TD's
Meyer extends his FG streak to 6 straight
Indiana is held to negative yards rushing

Indiana - Things to watch

The Iowa Hawkeyes will hit the road for only the third time this season, traveling to Bloomington, Indiana.  While the Hoosiers are still win less within the conference, their record is deceiving.  They have played very well at home and besides a blowout loss to Ohio State, they have been in every game.  Here are eight things to watch for on Saturday:

1. Marcus Coker - News broke today that Adam Robinson is going to miss the game on Saturday after suffering a concussion last week.  Marcus Coker figures to start the game at running back since he was listed as the backup on this week's depth chart.  Coker has seen action in two games, rushing for 100 total yards.  What is unknown is how he will perform when the game is still in question.  We haven't really seen how he does in pass protection, so you could see Brett Morse or Brad Rodgers get some playing time as well.
2. Linebacker - Iowa will be without Tyler Nielsen for the remainder of the season for sure and might be without the services of Jermiah Hunter and Jeff Tarpanian.  That leaves some holes to fill and Iowa is facing a team this week that is more of a spread team than last week when the young Iowa linebackers played so well.  How they match up against all the receivers Indiana will put on the field will be a major question.
3. 3-4 - As mentioned, Iowa has some injured linebackers and when the opponent gets into a sure passing situation, the coaches like to bring in a 3-4 defense.  When you are down so many linebackers that becomes a little bit tougher to do.  What we might see is Iowa bringing in more defensive backs at the linebacker position.
4. Offensive line - Iowa's offensive line has performed great the last five weeks, only allowing three sacks in that time.  On top of keeping Stanzi upright, they will be opening up holes for a true freshman running back.  Indiana's defense isn't very good, but when you have nothing to lose, you see teams pulling out all the stops and when you have a true freshman running backs, look for some blitzing.  The offensive line has probably known about A-Rob's injury all week and realizes they need to step their game up this week.
5. Defense - Iowa's defense finally put together a game last week that fans had been waiting for all season.  They dominated the Spartans offense and were really able to do about anything they wanted to.  This week, they are easily more talented than the Indiana offense, but Indiana has some great receivers and a solid quarterback.  Don't look for the 110th ranked rushing attack to have much success against Iowa, but their passing attack is 8th nationally.  The Indiana offense will put a lot of pressure on the Iowa secondary, who performed really good last week.
6. The century mark - Either Kirk Ferentz or Bill Lynch will end Saturday with their 100th career victory. Both coaches enter the game with 99 career victories and their teams will be playing hard to get their coach to the century mark.
7. Ben Chappell's foot - Chappell is one of the better passers in the Big Ten, but this week he was spotted with a walking boot on his foot to help his foot/ankle heal.  That isn't a good sign when you have one of the best defensive lines in the nation coming to town. Iowa figures to be able to stop the run and force Chappell to the air, where the talented front can take aim on a injured Chappell.
8. Stanzi - The season that Ricky is having is starting to garner some interest nationally in terms of Heisman buzz.  In five of the eight games this season he has thrown three or more touchdowns and on Saturday he will be facing a defense that is 105th nationally in pass efficiency defense.  With Adam Robinson being down look for Iowa to rely even more on the right arm or Stanzi to carry the offense.  Indiana's starting corners are not good, one was a receiver last year, the other one got his first career start last week.

Indiana - Notes

• Iowa is second in the nation with only 5 turnovers
• DJK had 0 catches last week
• Kirk Ferentz has 99 career coaching wins
• Iowa defense is 12th nationally in total defense
• Iowa has won 5 of the last 7 against the Hoosiers
• DJK's 8 touchdowns this season are tied for 4th best in Iowa history
• Iowa is second nationally with a +1.5/game turnover margin
• Stanzi and Ben Chappel are both semifinalists for the Davey O'Brien award
• Iowa has won 8 of their last 10 games away from Kinnick Stadium
• Points off turnover this season Iowa-85 Opp-7

Michigan St. - What we learned

Kinnick stadium was rocking and the football team responded with its most complete football game of the season to date.  Here are five things that we learned on Saturday:

1. The offensive line - Since the Arizona game where they gave up 6 sacks, the offensive line has given up three sacks in five games.  Not only that, but Ricky Stanzi hasn't really been bothered in the pocket, he has had plenty of time to find open receivers.  They have also been able to open holes for Adam Robinson to be able to average over 100 yards per game.  After the Arizona game, many fans were thinking that the offensive line was a liability, but they have come together to be a very solid unit.
2. Ricky Stanzi - Iowa fans should sit back and enjoy this guy.  Not only is he an elite collegiate quarterback, he is genuinely a good guy.  The numerous bracelets that he wears have been written about several times, he collects the bracelets from children that he visits at the hospital.  Now outside of the hospital, not many people know how often Stanzi is at the hospital, but know that he spends a lot of free time there. On top of being a great human being, Rick is also putting together one of the greatest single seasons by a Hawkeye quarterback that we have ever seen.
3. A new Kirk Ferentz - In the past we have all witnessed the conservatism Kirk displays, but on Saturday he burned timeouts with seconds to go in the first half forcing Michigan State to punt, ran a reverse pass when he was up big, and was still playing starters late into the game.  Nobody knows if there is a reason for his agressive moves, but don't dismiss the fact that Michigan State played Chris L. Rucker just days after he was released from prison.
4. Youth movement - Going into the season linebacker was one of the more experienced positions on the field, last Saturday Iowa relyed a great deal on two freshman, one true and one redshirt.  James Morris and Shane DiBona both performed great and have helped ease the fact that Iowa will be losing two starters from this unit as seniors.

Michigan St. - Predictions Recap

Predictions:

Iowa - 31 37

MSU - 24 6

Stanzi gets his second ever 300 yard game with 3 TD's (190 yards 3 TD)

Robinson totes the ball 25+ times for 100+ and a TD (69 yards 1 TD)

DJK sets the receptions record and gets closer to the TD record with 2 (0 catches 0 TD)

Iowa nets 5 sacks (1)

MSU scores on special teams (no)

Cousins throws three INT's (3)

Iowa holds MSU under 175 yard rushing (31)