Iowa vs Ball State - Predictions

When Ball State has the ball-
This is a team the will be similar style wise to Arizona.  They will deploy several different formations ranging from five wide to double tights.  They rely heavily on their ground game and try to gain the edge quite a bit.  Don't expect this team to come out and run power runs at Iowa, look for zone plays and counters.  Their offensive line isn't great, but isn't awful either, they did a pretty good job of containing Kerrigan, the talented end from Purdue last week.  The front is allowing 2 sacks per game on the early season.  The Cardinals will play two different quarterbacks, who are completely different styles.  Kelly Page, #5, is their dual threat quarterback, when he is in the game, look for shotgun zone read plays where he likes to pull the ball and run.  The other quarterback, Keith Wenning #10, is their passer, he can make all the passes and will stand in the pocket almost to a fault.  When he is in, they are more of a passing team and when they pass, they look for Daniel Ifft, who leads the team with 8 catches.  Look for a lot of screens and pick routes run by their wideouts, none of which have blazing speed to beat Iowa downfield.  The longest two pass plays on the season have been for 24 and 25 yards both to tight ends.  When the Cardinals run the ball they have a three headed monster in the backfield, Eric Williams (#6), MiQuale Lewis (#33), and Cory Sykes (#7) all have over 25 carries on the season.  Lewis has found the yards hard to come by this year only averaging 2.8 yards per carry, however he does have good hands with 5 catches out of the backfield.  Williams and Sykes both average over 5 yards a carry and are talented runners.  On top of these three, when #21 David Brown is on the field, the Cardinals are looking to get him the ball in space, usually end arounds coming after he motions in from the slot.  Both Clayborn and Binns will have to be disciplined to stop this play as he is averaging over 9 yards per carry.  Ball security is a problem for the Cardinals as they have 6 fumbles on the season, but have only lost 2 of them.  The key for Iowa will be to stop the run, if they can neutralize the run and force the Cardinals to the air, Iowa will get interceptions and sacks.  When Iowa forces punts, don't expect much in the return game as they are only allowing 1.8 yards per return on the season.

When Iowa has the ball-
Ball State's defense is not good, they are 62nd nationally allowing 345 yards per game.  They do a decent job on first and second down, but last week allowed Purdue to convert 10 of 17 third downs.  They aren't a big blitzing team, which bodes well for Iowa as we all saw what happened last week against a blitzing team.  They are very susceptible to the play action pass, so it is vital for Iowa to be successful with some runs to start the game and get the safeties to suck up in run support.  Last week Ball State would have given up a lot more passing yards to Purdue if Marve would have hit his open receivers.  Their defensive front is anchored by end Robert Eddins (#91), he will keep either Reiff or Zusevics busy on pass plays.  Look for Iowa to run and pass away from Eddins as much as possible as the other end is a significant drop in talent.  Their linebackers are the strength of the defense and will be stout against the run, but aren't the best in pass coverage, look for Iowa to deploy crossers to get open.  The defensive backfield is where Iowa has a distinct advantage, the secondary jumps routes a lot and will get beat deep on double moves. 

What will happen-
Iowa will have a point to make on Saturday and come out early to make that point.  They will dominate the first drive, going deep early on a play action pass.  Stanzi will parlay that into a big day throwing the ball downfield.  Ball State will learn quickly that they cannot run against the stout front seven from Iowa and go to the pass, where they won't have much luck either.  Look for Iowa to be up 14 at the end of the first quarter, much like the Iowa Sate game and up 28 at half.  In true Ferentz style, he will take the foot off the gas peddle and coast in the second half with Marcus Coker getting his first reps as a Hawkeye.

Predictions:
Iowa - 49
Ball St. - 10

Stanzi will throw for 275+ with three TD's
Robinson will find running room to the tune of 100+ and TD
Coker will get 70+ and TD
DJK will again have 100+ receiving and a TD
McNutt will get another catch of 40+ yards
Mossbrucker will miss a FG
Iowa will NOT allow a kick return of 30+ yards
The defense gets four turnovers
4+ sacks for the defense
Clayborn will get his first sack of the season
Sash will get his first interception of the year
Prater will get a pick 6