Michigan Stat Comparison and Notes

• The Iowa Hawkeyes are the only Division 1 football team to not give up a rushing touchdown this season
• Iowa is 5-3 when visiting Michigan for homecoming
• Iowa's only overtime loss ever was against Michigan in 2005
• The series is lopsided all time (40-11-4) in favor of Michigan, but the last six have been split
• Iowa opponents are only 6 -12 in the red zone this year, giving up 4 touchdowns and 2 field goals
• DJK needs 66 yards to become the all time leader in receiving yards at Iowa
• He also needs 9 catches to have the reception record at Iowa
• Iowa is 7-2 in their last nine games away from Iowa City
• Last player to rush for over 200 yards against Iowa was TJ Duckett in 2000 (Robinson has gone over 200 three times this season)
• Iowa has 10 offensive plays over 30 yards this season, their opponents have had 5
• The Iowa defense has caused a 3 and out 40% of their opponents drives this season
• Iowa is converting 46% of third downs this season, their opponents have converted 28%

What we know and don't know about Iowa

Iowa had the bye week last week, which was good timing for Iowa as they had injuries in key positions and the extra week of practice gave the injuries and extra week to heal and the young reserves key practice reps.  Now that the bye week is over, the Hawkeyes will begin their quest for a Big Ten title, here are some things we learned in the first five games.

What we know:

The defense is as good as was expected.  Through the first six weeks of the college season the Iowa defense is first in scoring defense, second in rushing defense, and fourth in total defense.  They haven't played any offenses yet that are that great, but you don't get those stat rankings unless you have a solid defense.  The fact that Iowa has done this despite every unit having key players miss substantial time.  The defensive line has been dominant, to a casual observer the stats haven't been great, but ask any offensive coordinator that has played Iowa and they will speak highly about the defensive line's disruption.  The coaches have done a great job of rotating the lineman as well, which will help keep the lineman fresh as the season progresses.  The linebacker core has probably been the most effected by injury.  Starting middle linebacker Jeff Tarpinian has been hampered by stingers the last several games and his backup Bruce Davis has been lost for the season with a knee injury.  Against Penn State, true freshman James Morris manned the middle and did a great job, easing the coaching staff's concern about a backup to Tarpinian.  Jerimiah Hunter has not missed a beat on the weak side and Tyler Nielsen has looked like a clone of his mentor, A.J. Edds.  The defensive backfield has like usual been reliable, they won't play bump and run coverage or man coverage for that matter, but when an opposing quarterback makes a mistake, the defensive backs are ready and waiting.

"It" has finally clicked for Ricky Stanzi.  Last year he showed flashes of greatness followed by throws that make you wonder what he was thinking.  This year he has played like a fifth year senior and has been rewarded by having the number 3 passing efficiency in the nation.  Ricky has made great decisions with the ball this season and takes what the defense has been giving him.  Unlike his predecessors at quarterback, he doesn't seem to have a favorite target or force the ball into a certain receiver.  What has stood out to me the most this season is that Stanzi has put his team in position to win with great audibles.

The receivers are a talented group.  Every single receiver has a role with this team.  You have Derrell Johnson-Koulianos, who will graduate from Iowa as the all time leader in receptions and yards.  DJK as he is known, is a sure handed receiver that seems to run a lot of Iowa's intermediate to deep routes.  Iowa's second leading receiver this season is Marvin McNutt, Marvin is Iowa's deep threat, he has mastered the crossing route in his one plus year as a receiver.  McNutt's greatest strength might be in the red zone, where his size and leaping ability make him a prime target.  Tight end Allan Reisner is the latest in the long line of great tight ends.  His progression from primarily a blocker to a sure handed pass catcher over the last four years has been remarkable.  Although the previous three are the main targets of Stanzi, Colin Sandeman is a solid possession receiver, Keenan Davis is a great reserve that can fill in for both McNutt and DJK.  One element of the passing attach that hasn't been seen for several years is the running back.  Adam Robinson has hauled in seven catches on the season and averaged over 20 yards per catch.

What we don't know:

The offensive line.  Going into the season, this is the one position that people could point to as a possible problem position for the Hawks.  Through the first five games, this unit has done nothing to make you feel any different.  In the Eastern Illinois, Iowa State, and Ball State games, the offensive line has looked very good, but they were playing inferior talent.  In the Penn State game, they looked great in the first half and then very average in the second half.  Most of that had to do with Iowa abandoning the pass and Penn State stacking the box with eight or nine defenders.  The one game that gave this unit the most fits was the Arizona game.  Arizona's strategy was to live and die by the blitz and that strategy was helped by the early lead that Arizona built up.  Iowa was forced to abandon the run and allowed the Arizona defenders get into their track stance and rush the quarterback.  If Iowa can keep a balanced attack, the offensive line will be fine, but when the defense knows what the offense has to do, this offensive line isn't good enough to dominate.

A backup running back.  Coming into the season, Iowa had too many backs and not enough carries.  After five games they have plenty of carries and need more backs to carry them.  Adam Robinson is a top 30 nationally running back through five games and can carry the ball, but he has no proven backup.  Both Marcus Coker and Brad Rodgers got carries in the blow out victory against Ball State, but Kirk Ferentz showed his hand a little bit in the Penn State game when the game was in hand and he didn't bring in the backups.  One thing that all running backs have to do at Iowa to see the field is block and that could be a problem that both Coker and Rodgers have, relying on one of these two against the blitz to protect Ricky Stanzi is not something Ferentz wants to do.  If Iowa is going to turn this season into a Big Ten Championship year, they will have to find a backup running back that can give Robinson a break a couple series a game.

Who is the kicker.  As Iowa fans, we were spoiled for a six or seven year span when we had Kaeding and Schlicher, both very good kickers.  This year Daniel Murray has been hurt and not seen the field, Trent Mossbrucker is not right between the ears, and Iowa is relying on true freshman walk-on Michael Meyer.  When the pressure is on how will Meyer respond?  We have seen that he has the distance to make any kick, but is only 1 of 2 on the year.  When Murray is healthy, does he get the job back?  At some point this season, Iowa will trot their kicker out to attempt a meaningful kick and that thought worries me with the current state of the kickers.

Penn State Predictions Recap

Predictions:

Iowa - 31  (24)
Penn State - 17 (3)

Stanzi will pick apart the Nittany Lion defense to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TD's (227 yards 1 TD)
Robinson will find running tough, but still gain 70+ yards and a TD (95 yards 0 TD)
DJK will set the career receiving yardage mark with 130+ yards and a TD (64 yards 1 TD)
McNutt comes back after missing most of last week with 75+ yards and a TD (93 yards 0 TD)
Reisner has 6 catches and a TD (3 catches 0 TD)
The Nittany Lions will tally 3+ sacks (1)
Iowa will control the line of scrimmage, limiting Penn State to less than 80 yards on the ground (54 yards)
Iowa will force four turnovers (1)
Iowa gets a pick 6 (Yes)
Penn State returns a kick for a TD (No)

Iowa vs Penn State Predictions

When Penn State has the ball:
The offense that Penn State runs this season isn't all that different from Iowa's.  They run a lot of isolation and zone run plays and they seldom have four or five receivers.  Their quarterback is young, but talented.  He will sit in the pocket and take a lot of hits, but his ability to run and a quick release keep him from getting sacked.  The offensive line isn't great and took a big hit last week when their starting right tackle, Lou Eliades, was lost due to injury.  Their two tackles have a combined four collegiate starts and will be facing one of the best defensive lines in the nation, not a good combination for Penn State fans.  Penn State knows that running between the tackles is a tough task against Iowa, look for them to try and gain the edge with option and stretch plays.  When Stephfon Green (#21) comes into the game, his speed could give Iowa problems and the Nittany Lions like to get him on the edge to use that speed.  The Penn State receivers are all talented, however, there isn't a single one that is featured more, they spread the ball around.  When he is pressed, Bolden will look to #83 Brett Brackett, who is tied for the team lead with 15 catches.  Penn State is very dangerous on the punt return, Green is the returner and gets up to top speed very quickly, Donahue will have to do a good job of hanging his punts up to give his coverage team time to get down the field.

When Iowa has the ball:
Penn State runs a base 4-3 defense and will stay in this defense almost the entire game, just like Iowa would do.  Their defense is very fast flowing, meaning that they go with the flow of the offensive line hard, leaving them susceptible to play action and boots.  Penn State will bring the blitz from both their linebackers and corners, but they show this very early and Temple had great success checking to new plays.  The other thing that opens up with fast flow defenses is the cutback, Iowa's zone running could mean huge cutback lanes for Robinson.  The defense's weak point is against the run, they are giving up 117 yards per game on the ground and Alabama was able to rack up 180 yards on the ground.  Look for Iowa to balance the run and pass well, starting with the run and short passes and then moving more to the play action pass once the defensive backs have started coming up in run support.

What will happen:
The atmosphere will be amazing and look for Iowa to feed off of that and score on their first drive.  You will see Adam Robinson, but the pass will be Ken O'Keefe's choice, utilizing the short passing game down the field.  The Iowa defense will come out and dominate the line of scrimmage like all fans have come accustomed to them doing this season.  Royster will find the holes few and far between and Penn State will be forced to look for yardage elsewhere.  The first half will be very back and forth with Iowa holding a 14-10 lead at halftime.  Halftime is the place where the Iowa coaches have earned their salaries the last two seasons as Iowa has outscored those 17 opponents 242-95 in the second half, keeping 13 of the 17 opponents to 7 points or less in the second half.  Look for Iowa to impose its will in the second half both on offense and defense, cruising to a comfortable win.

Predictions:

Iowa - 31
Penn State - 17

Stanzi will pick apart the Nittany Lion defense to the tune of 300+ yards and 3 TD's
Robinson will find running tough, but still gain 70+ yards and a TD
DJK will set the career receiving yardage mark with 130+ yards and a TD
McNutt comes back after missing most of last week with 75+ yards and a TD
Reisner has 6 catches and a TD
The Nittany Lions will tally 3+ sacks
Iowa will control the line of scrimmage, limiting Penn State to less than 80 yards on the ground
Iowa will force four turnovers
Iowa gets a pick 6
Penn State returns a kick for a TD

Penn State - 10 things to watch

Iowa kicks off the Big Ten Schedule by hosting Penn State in historic Kinnick Stadium.  Below are ten things to look for Saturday night:

1.  What is the halftime score?  This season, Iowa has only allowed 14 second half points in 8 quarters and 7 of those were by Iowa State against Iowa's third string.  If Iowa can hold the lead at halftime, the chances of Penn State coming back are slim.  Iowa is a team that is built to play with the lead, they use their size to lean on teams offensively and wear them down and on defense when a team becomes one dimensional, the Iowa coaches can take that away.

2.  Who will be able to run?  Penn State has found the ground game hard to come by so far this season.  Last week against Temple they were able to amass, 216 yards on 46 carries.  They need to be able to run, because Evan Royster is their best offensive player and if he isn't producing, it makes for long days for Penn State.  They will be matched up against a defense that suffocates the run, only allowing 65 yards per game.  If Iowa can stop the Nittany Lions on the ground, it will put the pressure on true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden, I like Iowa's chances if that happens.  On the other side, Iowa's whole offense is predicated on being able to run the ball.  Penn State's entire defense is a fast flow defense that is very susceptible to the play action and waggle plays that Iowa loves to run.  If Iowa can have some success on the ground, it opens up the play-action pass that Ricky Stanzi has thrived on this season.  If Penn State forces Iowa in to known passing situations, their defense is good enough to get to Stanzi, especially when the Hawkeyes are giving up over 2 sacks a game on average this season.

3.  Iowa's defensive line needs to control the line of scrimmage.  Last year, the Penn State game was the coming out party for Iowa's defensive front, they totaled 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.  Those numbers don't look dominating, but ask Daryll Clark how many times he got hit last year.  That was against a pretty good offensive line, this year going into the season Penn State's assistant coach Joe Paterno called the offensive line play "very, very average."  That was before they lost their starting right tackle to injury, which means that their two starting tackles have a combined total of 4 collegiate starts.  The Nittany Lion offensive line doesn't give up many sacks, but that has more to do with Bolden's legs and quick release than it does them.  If Iowa can get pressure with just their front four, Iowa's back 7 will have a field day with the true freshman quarterback.

4.  Kicking is a concern.  Kickers are a concern for both teams, but on opposite ends of the spectrum.  Iowa has only attempted 2 field goals on the season, both last week, while Penn State has already attempted 12 kicks.  Michael Meyer has taken over for the Hawkeyes and is the only one with attempts this season, going 1-2.  Collin Wagner is the kicker for Penn State and has been very good, only missing two all season.  Iowa is concerned with a lack of experience, while Penn State is concerned with too much experience.  Penn State fans remember all to well what happened last time they played in Iowa City, the offense struggled in the Red Zone and had to kick 3 field goals, while Iowa finished their drives with touchdowns and knocked off the highly ranked Nittany Lions.  If this game comes down to field goals, the advantage is in the Penn State corner.

5.  How will Robinson fare in the Big Ten?  The Big Ten conference is stereotyped as big, slow, running teams, while part of that is absurd, the fact that it is a punishing conference isn't.  Adam Robinson was able to make it through the non-conference without getting nicked up, however now that his backups are unproven, his health could be the determining factor of a Big Ten Championship and middle of the pack finish.  Last year the league schedule took its toll on Adam and he was really beat up by the end of the regular season, this year, that can't happen.

6.  Blitz pickup.  No doubt that Penn State watched the Arizona game film and saw how they reeked havoc on the Iowa offensive line with blitzes.  Penn State can blitz and has very athletic linebackers and will also bring the pressure from the corner position.  The problem they had with this in the Temple game is that they were telegraphing it and the Temple quarterback did a great job of audibling to a play to counter the blitz.  Iowa is not a team that usually gets to the line with a lot of time to go on the play clock and could get burnt by this.  Against Arizona, Stanzi just missed on a couple long passes against the blitz, if against Penn State he can convert these, it will go a long way to slowing down their defense.

7.  Home field advantage.  Iowa has one of the better home win percentages over the last five years in the entire nation and the team will need the fans as much as ever Saturday night.  The stadium will look very cool if the fans all follow the instructions and wear the color they are supposed to, if you are unsure, go to http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092610aak.html.  The last true night game that Iowa had against a ranked opponent was in 2006 against Ohio State, the atmosphere was electric that night and the fans need to have a night like that again to help this team to a victory.  Other than the game, Iowa has a ton of recruits coming in for this weekend and a great atmosphere is huge in a seventeen or eighteen year old's decision on where he wants to attend.

8.  Avoid the "big play."  Last year the first play from scrimmage for Penn State was a long touchdown pass.  This year one of the first plays against Arizona was a blocked punt.  Iowa cannot afford to get in a hole against teams of Penn State's caliber, because we all saw what happened when Iowa got behind against Arizona.  Iowa has only allowed 3 opponents out of the last 30 score on their opening drive and need to continue that streak.  Iowa's defense has proven that it is not easy to go the length of the field on them, you can dink and dunk your way down the field, but at some point you will make a mistake and Iowa is opportunistic.  Two times has the first team defense given up drives this year, against Eastern Illinois a fake punt helped the drive and Arizona had a deep pass help theirs.  If Iowa can force the true freshman quarterback to make short passes, at some point he will get greedy and that is where Sash and Greenwood show up.

9.  Turnovers will be a key component.  On the season, Iowa is +1 with turnovers, Penn State is -.5.  In their only other game against a quality opponent, Penn State had three fumbles and three interceptions against Alabama.  They only lost one of those fumbles, but Royster also put the ball on the turf twice last week.  With Iowa's swarming defense, look for Royster to fumble again.  Bolden throws a nice ball and usually takes the short pass as opposed to the long one, but he gets hit and knocked down a lot.  Once you get hit that many times, your passes are affected.

10.  Can Ricky keep it up?  So far we have seen a different Ricky Stanzi this season.  He has made good decisions and kept his team out of trouble.  This weekend will be a tough defense and they will bring the pressure on him.  If he can get time, their defensive backs are not the most skilled.  The key to how Ricky will do will be if Iowa can get the running game going, if they can run the ball it opens up play action and waggle plays the are Iowa's bread and butter.  Another thing to look for are double moves, Iowa is well known for their outs early in the game, look for an out and up early in the game to loosen up the safeties.