Penn State - 10 things to watch

Iowa kicks off the Big Ten Schedule by hosting Penn State in historic Kinnick Stadium.  Below are ten things to look for Saturday night:

1.  What is the halftime score?  This season, Iowa has only allowed 14 second half points in 8 quarters and 7 of those were by Iowa State against Iowa's third string.  If Iowa can hold the lead at halftime, the chances of Penn State coming back are slim.  Iowa is a team that is built to play with the lead, they use their size to lean on teams offensively and wear them down and on defense when a team becomes one dimensional, the Iowa coaches can take that away.

2.  Who will be able to run?  Penn State has found the ground game hard to come by so far this season.  Last week against Temple they were able to amass, 216 yards on 46 carries.  They need to be able to run, because Evan Royster is their best offensive player and if he isn't producing, it makes for long days for Penn State.  They will be matched up against a defense that suffocates the run, only allowing 65 yards per game.  If Iowa can stop the Nittany Lions on the ground, it will put the pressure on true freshman quarterback Robert Bolden, I like Iowa's chances if that happens.  On the other side, Iowa's whole offense is predicated on being able to run the ball.  Penn State's entire defense is a fast flow defense that is very susceptible to the play action and waggle plays that Iowa loves to run.  If Iowa can have some success on the ground, it opens up the play-action pass that Ricky Stanzi has thrived on this season.  If Penn State forces Iowa in to known passing situations, their defense is good enough to get to Stanzi, especially when the Hawkeyes are giving up over 2 sacks a game on average this season.

3.  Iowa's defensive line needs to control the line of scrimmage.  Last year, the Penn State game was the coming out party for Iowa's defensive front, they totaled 3 tackles for loss and 2 sacks.  Those numbers don't look dominating, but ask Daryll Clark how many times he got hit last year.  That was against a pretty good offensive line, this year going into the season Penn State's assistant coach Joe Paterno called the offensive line play "very, very average."  That was before they lost their starting right tackle to injury, which means that their two starting tackles have a combined total of 4 collegiate starts.  The Nittany Lion offensive line doesn't give up many sacks, but that has more to do with Bolden's legs and quick release than it does them.  If Iowa can get pressure with just their front four, Iowa's back 7 will have a field day with the true freshman quarterback.

4.  Kicking is a concern.  Kickers are a concern for both teams, but on opposite ends of the spectrum.  Iowa has only attempted 2 field goals on the season, both last week, while Penn State has already attempted 12 kicks.  Michael Meyer has taken over for the Hawkeyes and is the only one with attempts this season, going 1-2.  Collin Wagner is the kicker for Penn State and has been very good, only missing two all season.  Iowa is concerned with a lack of experience, while Penn State is concerned with too much experience.  Penn State fans remember all to well what happened last time they played in Iowa City, the offense struggled in the Red Zone and had to kick 3 field goals, while Iowa finished their drives with touchdowns and knocked off the highly ranked Nittany Lions.  If this game comes down to field goals, the advantage is in the Penn State corner.

5.  How will Robinson fare in the Big Ten?  The Big Ten conference is stereotyped as big, slow, running teams, while part of that is absurd, the fact that it is a punishing conference isn't.  Adam Robinson was able to make it through the non-conference without getting nicked up, however now that his backups are unproven, his health could be the determining factor of a Big Ten Championship and middle of the pack finish.  Last year the league schedule took its toll on Adam and he was really beat up by the end of the regular season, this year, that can't happen.

6.  Blitz pickup.  No doubt that Penn State watched the Arizona game film and saw how they reeked havoc on the Iowa offensive line with blitzes.  Penn State can blitz and has very athletic linebackers and will also bring the pressure from the corner position.  The problem they had with this in the Temple game is that they were telegraphing it and the Temple quarterback did a great job of audibling to a play to counter the blitz.  Iowa is not a team that usually gets to the line with a lot of time to go on the play clock and could get burnt by this.  Against Arizona, Stanzi just missed on a couple long passes against the blitz, if against Penn State he can convert these, it will go a long way to slowing down their defense.

7.  Home field advantage.  Iowa has one of the better home win percentages over the last five years in the entire nation and the team will need the fans as much as ever Saturday night.  The stadium will look very cool if the fans all follow the instructions and wear the color they are supposed to, if you are unsure, go to http://www.hawkeyesports.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/092610aak.html.  The last true night game that Iowa had against a ranked opponent was in 2006 against Ohio State, the atmosphere was electric that night and the fans need to have a night like that again to help this team to a victory.  Other than the game, Iowa has a ton of recruits coming in for this weekend and a great atmosphere is huge in a seventeen or eighteen year old's decision on where he wants to attend.

8.  Avoid the "big play."  Last year the first play from scrimmage for Penn State was a long touchdown pass.  This year one of the first plays against Arizona was a blocked punt.  Iowa cannot afford to get in a hole against teams of Penn State's caliber, because we all saw what happened when Iowa got behind against Arizona.  Iowa has only allowed 3 opponents out of the last 30 score on their opening drive and need to continue that streak.  Iowa's defense has proven that it is not easy to go the length of the field on them, you can dink and dunk your way down the field, but at some point you will make a mistake and Iowa is opportunistic.  Two times has the first team defense given up drives this year, against Eastern Illinois a fake punt helped the drive and Arizona had a deep pass help theirs.  If Iowa can force the true freshman quarterback to make short passes, at some point he will get greedy and that is where Sash and Greenwood show up.

9.  Turnovers will be a key component.  On the season, Iowa is +1 with turnovers, Penn State is -.5.  In their only other game against a quality opponent, Penn State had three fumbles and three interceptions against Alabama.  They only lost one of those fumbles, but Royster also put the ball on the turf twice last week.  With Iowa's swarming defense, look for Royster to fumble again.  Bolden throws a nice ball and usually takes the short pass as opposed to the long one, but he gets hit and knocked down a lot.  Once you get hit that many times, your passes are affected.

10.  Can Ricky keep it up?  So far we have seen a different Ricky Stanzi this season.  He has made good decisions and kept his team out of trouble.  This weekend will be a tough defense and they will bring the pressure on him.  If he can get time, their defensive backs are not the most skilled.  The key to how Ricky will do will be if Iowa can get the running game going, if they can run the ball it opens up play action and waggle plays the are Iowa's bread and butter.  Another thing to look for are double moves, Iowa is well known for their outs early in the game, look for an out and up early in the game to loosen up the safeties.