Hawks in the draft

Once again several Hawkeyes will her their name called over the weekend at Radio City Music Hall in New York City. Here is a quick run-down of where I think they will go in the draft and the ideal situation for that player.


Adrian Clayborn – late first round – possible suitors: Giants, Buccaneers, Eagles, Saints, or Falcons – A true 4-3 defensive end will find a home and be a reliable contributor for years to come

Christian Ballard – late second/early third – can play a 3-4 defensive end or 4-3 tackle/end - His versatility is what is the most intriguing part of Christian’s game, he can play multiple positions in either defense.

Ricky Stanzi – late third/early fourth – experts waver on where he will go and how productive he will be. I would compare him to Matt Schaub, smart player that will be a backup for a few years, but shine when he gets his chance

Tyler Sash – Fourth – Measurables won’t get him drafted, but a nose for the ball and what is between his ears will. Plays like a strong safety, but thinks like a free safety, will be able to play either at the next level

Ryan Donahue – Fifth – Much like Iowa did, some team will draft him and not worry about punting for years to come

Jeremiah Hunter – Sixth – A guy who started at OLB for three seasons at Iowa, never did anything flashy, but was never out of position either. Probably a backup and special teams player at the next level.

Karl Klug – Sixth – Maybe got the most out of his talent, has a motor that NFL teams love. I would liken him to Jared Clauss, keeps his pad level low and will be a 4-3 tackle.

Allen Reisner – Sixth – With more and more teams running two tight end sets, he will find a place to play, he blocks and makes all the catches.

Derrell Johnson-Koulianos – Seventh – doesn’t have ideal NFL wide receiver size or speed, but runs crisp routes and can contribute on special teams. Probably a fifth rounder without the character questions.

Brett Greenwood & Julian Vandervelde – FA’s - Brett and Julian have outside chances of getting drafted, but it is highly unlikely.

Ohio State - Predictions

When Ohio State has the ball -
They are led by one of the most dynamic quarterbacks in the nation in Terrelle Pryor.  Last season, Iowa was able to stymie Pryor, only allowing him to gain 29 yards rushing and 93 passing yards.  However it was Ohio State's running backs that hurt Iowa last year, gaining 200 yards combined on the ground.  This season the Buckeys come to Iowa City with six different players that have carried the ball at least 20 times on the season.  Daniel "Boom" Herron is their primary ball carrier and he is very good and gets many of the carries inside the red zone.  Both Herron and Brandon Saine catch the ball out of the backfield a lot, tallying 13 and 18 catches respectively.  Aside from the running backs, Pryor's favorite targets are Dane Sanzenbacher and DeVier Posey, both with 43 catches on the season.  Outside of these two wide receivers, no other wide receiver has ten catches.  The offense that Iowa will face on Saturday is one very similar to their own.  A lot of "I" formation with a TE and two wide.  This week a lot of fans are doom and gloom thinking that after what Persa did to us, Pryor will have a field day, but they are not the same quarterback and the offenses are so different.  Pryor will sit in the pocket more than Persa did last week and when he does scramble he looks to pass more than Persa did.  The play that has me worried is the zone read play, if Pryor makes a good read and pulls the ball he is dangerous when he gets going north and south.  To neutralize him, the Iowa defenders will have to force him to move laterally and wait for the cavalry to bring him down.  The Buckeye offensive line is big, not Wisconsin big, but probably the second best unit that the Iowa defense has played so far this season.  They do however have trouble keeping Pryor upright, allowing on average 2 sacks per game.

When Iowa has the ball -
Ohio State boasts easily the best defense that Iowa has faced this season.  They are littered with NFL talent from the defensive line to the safeties.  While their front four is very solid, much like Iowa's this season, they haven't put up the best of stat lines, being tied for 86th in sacks and 81st in tackles for loss.  Their weak spot from what I could tell was when the opposing quarterback rolls out.  They are very talented in the linebacker corps and will use these players in a variety of ways from blitzing to coverage.  They had some trouble last week against Penn State when they ran the stretch play on cut backs, so look for Iowa to exploit that on Saturday.

What will happen -
Iowa has performed really well in games coming off of their previous two losses this season outscoring their opponents 86-7.  It's senior day for 26 seniors that if they win out will tie the Iowa record for wins in a three year stretch.  Dan Gable is the honorary captain this week and you figure that the team will come out motivated if he gives the pre-game speech.  Look for Iowa to feed off of all of these things and get out to an early lead, a problem that Ohio State has had against conference opponents this season.  The stadium will be loud and the players can help keep it that way by getting an early lead.  Once that initial emotional boost wears off is what concerns me.  Ohio State has been in this position several times already this season and if Iowa gets a lead and then has Ohio State come back, the "not again" thoughts start to creep into the players minds.  Look for the seniors on this squad to finally take the reigns of the team and lead them to a victory.

Predictions-
Iowa - 20
OSU - 17

Predictions -
Stanzi plays solid - 200+ yards 1 TD 1 INT
Robinson continues - 90+ yards 1 TD
For only the 4th time in 24 games, Iowa allows a 100 yard rusher
The Iowa defense records 4 sacks
Iowa blocks a kick
Clayborn gets a sack to seal the victory

Northwestern - Pregame

Looks like no Sandeman today, not only will Iowa miss him as a receiver, but he has proven to be a sure handed punt returner.  Look for Paul Chaney to take over his punt return duties and get his reps as a receiver, but it should be noted that Chaney has as many catches this season as I do, which is zero.  Sandeman has proven to be a security blanket for Stanzi on third down, hopefully this doesn't hurt the Hawkeyes today.

Northwestern - Predictions

When Northwestern has the ball - They will line up with receivers all over the field.  Iowa will probably line up in their base defense for most of the game, which means linebackers in the open.  Northwestern, much like Indiana will dink and dunk their way down the field.  Their type of offense was basically built to play against Iowa's zone defense.  Persa is a good quarterback that makes good decisions most of the time, much like Ben Chappell last week.  He is a runner however, actually, he leads Northwestern in rushing.  He will run out of zone read plays and also quarterback draws.  Northwestern will also run z sweeps to try and get their receivers on the edge.  They will not go down field much with their passing attack and when they are in the red zone they look for Jeremy Ebert, who has hauled in 7 of the team's 13 touchdown receptions.

When Iowa has the ball - Northwestern's defense isn't great at anything, but they also aren't awful at anything.  They are a very average defense, but their pass defense is 100th in the nation, giving up almost 250 yards per game.  Iowa should be able to do whatever they want to do both running and passing.

Predictions:

Iowa 31

Northwestern 17

Ricky Stanzi bounces back with 275+ and 2 TD's

Robinson has 100+ and a TD

Iowa holds NW to less than 50 yards rushing

Demos misses 2 FG's

Iowa gets a big special team return TD

Mike Daniels has 2 TFL's and a sack

Sash gets another INT

Northwestern - 10 things to watch

Iowa makes the short trip to Evanston, IL to battle the Northwestern Wildcats.  Of late, the Wildcats have had a ton of success against the Hawkeyes, winning 4 of the last 5 games.  This week a freshman running back at Northwestern was asked about Iowa and he said that he didn't know much, other than that Coach Fitz, hates them.  He is the new Dan McCarney, he may not get much out of his team, but gets them up for Iowa.  Here are ten things to watch on Saturday:

1. Iowa has to avoid turnovers - The last two years, Iowa has turned the ball over 9 times against Northwestern.  Iowa has to avoid the turnover problem that  has plagued them the last few years.
2. Star players must finish the game - Last year, Iowa was up 10 when Ricky Stanzi went down and Iowa proceeded to lose the game.  Two years ago, Shonn Greene went down with a concussion and Iowa wasn't the same team after he left the game.  If Iowa loses Stanzi or another star this season it could point to the same outcome as the last two years.
3. Iowa defensive line - Northwestern isn't a running team, but when they do run, they run with their quarterback, Dan Persa.  Their passing attack is a quick one and if the linebackers are worried about the run, it keeps them from getting to their drop zones that Northwestern will exploit.  If the front four can contain Persa's running ability, it really helps the linebackers focus on the mass of receivers that Northwestern will throw at them.
4. Kicker - Neither kicker has been great with PAT's, with Meyer missing 2 and Stefan Demos missing 3.  The main difference is Meyer is a freshman and Demos is a Senior, missing PAT's is something a freshman does, not a senior.  
5. Adam Robinson - After missing last week's narrow escape at Indiana, the sophomore running back will be back in the backfield for the Hawks.  Now, Robinson's backup, Marcus Coker, had a great game, but was curiously absent in the red zone and the second half.  There was a direct correlation between that and Kirk Ferentz not being comfortable with Coker's inexperience.  This week, look for Iowa to spell Robinson with Coker to help reduce the wear on an already beaten up body.
6. Mother nature - Looks like the game time weather will be cold and wet.  If it is raining, it helps Iowa a lot, the are the more physical team on both sides of the ball and it isn't even close.  If there is a wet ball, it hampers Northwestern's game plan of short quick passes more than it hurts Iowa's pound the ball style.  If Iowa can get an early lead, they will be able to take the air out of the ball and start to beat up on the Northwestern lines.  If they can do this, the Wildcats could begin to physically wear down.
7. Senior leaders - Iowa's senior class is 1-3 against the Wildcats in their first four years on campus, this team has too many great senior leaders to allow this team to not be ready to play.  The leadership has to know that next week's game doesn't mean anything unless they take care of business on Saturday.
8. Norm - It could just be a coincidence, but Iowa played arguably its best defense of the season against Michigan State, the first game back for defensive coordinator in six weeks.  He missed last week but is making the trip to Evanston this weekend.  No, he has not been that involved in the game plan, but there is no denying his emotional boost to the defense, not to mention that he makes some of the best adjustments on the fly of any defensive coordinator in the nation.
9. Offensive Line - Northwestern loves to blitz, something that Iowa has not had too much trouble with since the Arizona game.  However, the offensive line seemed to take a step back last week, allowing two sacks.  The line is more talented than the Wildcat defense, but talent doesn't always win.
10. James Morris - Morris has stepped into a starting role and even though he is a true freshman, he hasn't even blinked.  He is solid against the run and is great against the pass.  This will be a great test for him as Persa is a running quarterback and Morris might be assigned to him as a spy.  With Northwestern lining up with an empty backfield often, it leaves Persa 1 on 1 with Morris on quarterback draws.  If Morris can hold his own, Iowa will win the game.