Michigan St. - Predictions

Iowa's season has left many fans wondering what has happened.  The fact of the matter is, Iowa just needs to win to share of the Big Ten title.  That task begins this weekend as Michigan State will place their #5 BCS ranking on the line when they roll into Iowa City.  Last season, Iowa went into East Lansing with a #6 BCS ranking and escaped with a 15-13 win.

When Michigan State has the ball:
The Michigan State offense is like Iowa looking into a mirror.  Their run game is almost exclusively zone plays, whether it is inside or outside the run the zone.  Don't look for them to run much downhill, Iso or Power type runs like Wisconsin ran last week.  They have very good running backs that are patient and allow the blocks to develop.  The offensive line isn't near as good as Wisconsin's, but they are probably more athletic and get to the second level to block linebackers much better than Wisconsin.  When they go to the air, the Spartans have a very talented receiver corps.  Like Iowa, they will use their tight end in various positions and create mismatches. Cousins usually makes good decisions, but does have some gun slinger in him.  He has a tendency to hold the ball a little longer than he should and opens himself up to sacks.

When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa will do what Iowa does, they will run the ball and setup the defense for the play action pass.  Michigan State poses a solid front 7, they will blitz and have possibly the best set of linebackers that Iowa will face all season.  The Spartan defense is susceptible to the run as they allowed Wisconsin to run for a little under 200 yards when they played.  Iowa has a distinct advantage with its receivers over the Spartans defensive backs, look for Stanzi to exploit this early and often.

Predictions:
Iowa - 31
MSU - 24

Stanzi gets his second ever 300 yard game with 3 TD's
Robinson totes the ball 25+ times for 100+ and a TD
DJK sets the receptions record and gets closer to the TD record with 2
Iowa nets 5 sacks
MSU scores on special teams
Cousins throws three INT's
Iowa holds MSU under 175 yard rushing

Michigan St. - 10 Things to watch

1. Iowa's run defense needs to step up big time.  With the assumption that Jeff Tarpanian and Jerimiah Hunter are both not playing, Iowa will probably have a true freshman playing the middle linebacker position.  Against a team that runs the ball as well as Michigan State, the defensive line is going to have to have a great game to give Iowa a shot at winning.  The Spartans' primary backs, Baker and Bell, both average over six yards a carry.
2. Iowa's offensive line improving.  The last four games, the line has given up a total of three sacks and two of those came on plays where Stanzi left the pocket.  Besides keeping Ricky upright, they have been doing a very good job at opening up holes for Adam Robinson to run for just short of 117 yards per game the last four games.  After the Arizona game, there was a lot of talk about the line not being that good, but they have proven over the last four weeks that they are more than adequate.
3. Turnovers  Both teams are solid in the turnover game, both are positive over a turnover a game.  It has been since the first quarter of the Penn State game that Iowa has turned the ball over, a streak that has covered 11 quarters.  Michigan State has fumbled the ball 10 times this season, losing 7 of them.  Whichever team wins the turnover margin has a good shot at winning the game.
4. Norm will be in the house.  He has not been into the office, so he will probably not be making calls and wasn't involved with the game plan, but he is one of the best if not the best at making adjustments.  That is something that he will be able to do on the fly from the press box.  Along with making adjustments, don't underestimate the emotional boost his presence will give the defense.
5. Michigan State 2010 = Iowa 2009  Michigan State was a team that was thought to be able to challenge for the Big Ten title this year, but very few people would have predicted them being 8-0.  The way that they have gotten there is even more unorthodox, they had to have a furious rally last week against Northwestern and used a fake field goal in overtime to beat Notre Dame.  The other thing to watch is how Michigan State reacts to having the target on their back as opposed to usually being the underdog.
6. Iowa has to start winning the close ones.  Over the last three seasons, Iowa has lost a total of 8 games, each and every one of them were by 7 points or less.  The last three years, the Michigan State versus Iowa game has been decided by a total of 12 points.  Odds are in favor of this also being a close game.
7. Field Goal kickers. Michigan State has one of the better kickers in the game in Dan Conroy who is 13 of 14 on the season.  Iowa has a young kicker in Mike Meyer, who has made his last four field goal attempts.  If this game comes down to a field goal, look for either kicker to make the kick.
8. Chris L. Rucker  Rucker was part of the brew ha ha at the end of last season at a residence hall.  After being reinstated from that incident, head coach Mark D'Antonio stated that he would have "zero tolerance," in regards to Rucker.  While he was on probation, Rucker got pinched for driving under the influence.  He was sentenced to eight days in jail and was reinstated to the program the same day that he was released from jail.  Make no doubt about it, D'Antonio didn't reinstate him to not play him this weekend and Rucker is probably MSU's best defensive back.  What kind of shape he will be in will be interesting, not being involved with the program for 8 days is a lot of time.
9. Pressure on the Defensive backs.  Iowa's defensive backs have had a solid season to date, but they haven't faced a passing attack like the one they will face this weekend.  Kirk Cousins is a poor man's Ricky Stanzi, makes good decisions and has weapons on the outside.  Mark Dell and BJ Cunningham are the first two receivers and each have over 30 catches on the season and are the primary targets in the red zone.  Keshawn Martin and Keith Nichol operate out of the slot when MSU goes three wide.  Martin is their speedster that they will use on fly sweeps.  Iowa has to be able to make open field tackles as MSU loves the slot screen and "smoke" routes putting their wide outs one on one with defensive backs.  If Iowa's front seven cannot stop the run and the safeties have to step into the box to help, the Spartan receivers are good enough to burn Iowa deep on play action.
10. Special Teams.  Obviously if you have watched Iowa at all this season, you know that special teams have been anything but special.  It isn't just one team either, the kickoff and field goal teams have been awful this season.  Michigan State on the other hand used a fake punt last week to win and a fake field goal against Notre Dame to win.  

Michigan St. - Notes

• Iowa is 6-4 in the last 10 against MSU
• DJK is tied for the career receptions record at Iowa
• Iowa is converting 52% of third down conversions
• Opponents are 64% on fourth down this season
• Opponents have scored 38% of their points in the fourth quarter
• Iowa has only allowed 7 points off of turnovers
• Rick Stanzi has the best winning percentage of any quarterback in Iowa history

Wisconsin - Predictions Recap

Predictions:

Iowa - 27 (30)

Wisconsin - 13 (31)

Adam Robinson eclipses the century mark with 100+ yards and 2 TD's (114 yards 1 TD)

Rick Stanzi has a quiet game with 200+ yards passing 1 TD (258 yards 3 TD)

DJK comes up short of the record with 4 catches for 60 yards (5 catches 93 yards)

Iowa defense holds Clay to only 80 yards or less (91 yards)

Iowa turns Wisconsin over four times (1)
Sash has two interceptions (0)

Iowa vs Wisconsin - Predictions

When Wisconsin has the ball-
Wisconsin's offense starts and ends with the run.  Both John Clay and James White will carry the ball for the Badgers and they are averaging 113 and 80 yards per game respectively.  Clay has yet to catch a ball out of the backfield, so don't look for him on passing downs to leave the backfield.  Last year, the Badgers were able to gouge the Hawkeye defense with the counter run, but in the second half, Iowa made some changes and were able to stymie the Badger offense.  The senior signal caller for Wisconsin, Scott Tolzien, is more of a game manager than a game controller.  He has only had one game so far this season with more than one touchdown and that came in a 70-3 route.  Look for Iowa to load the box and force Wisconsin to pass the ball.  When they do pass the ball, Tolzien looks for his tight end Lance Kendricks and wide receiver Nick Toon.  Toon missed three games with injury, but is still second on the team in receptions.  Almost every pass attempt that Wisconsin makes is off the play-action.  There is a huge advantage for Iowa as Wisconsin runs about the same type of offense that Iowa runs and the defense has played against that kind of offense since fall camp opened.

When Iowa has the ball-
The Wisconsin defense is solid, but not spectacular.  They have yet to really be tested, last week they jumped out to an early lead against Ohio State and forced the Buckeyes to be one dimensional.  They are solid in the line and linebackers, but their secondary is the weak point of the defense.  Iowa should be able to move the ball, but must avoid turnovers to win the game.

What will happen-
This game will take fans back to yesteryear in the Big Ten.  It will be like two prize fighters in the middle of the ring trading body blows with both teams needing to run to set up the pass.  Look for Iowa to get ahead early with a play action pass to McNutt.  The halftime score will be close something like 10-7 or 13-10 with Iowa holding the lead.  The second half will like most Iowa games be dominated by the Hawkeyes.  The Iowa defense will contain the running backs and force Tolzien into passing situations.  Iowa will take the air out of the ball with the run game and short passes to keep the clock moving.

Predictions:
Iowa - 27
Wisconsin - 13

Adam Robinson eclipses the century mark with 100+ yards and 2 TD's
Rick Stanzi has a quiet game with 200+ yards passing 1 TD
DJK comes up short of the record with 4 catches for 60 yards
Iowa defense holds Clay to only 80 yards or less
Iowa turns Wisconsin over four times
Sash has two interceptions