1. The Iowa defense is living up to the hype. Going into the season there were a lot of pundits gushing over the Hawkeye defense. Through two games, Iowa has lived up to all the expectations. The front four, while not piling up sack numbers, has been dominating. They only have 4 total sacks, but if college kept QB hits and QB pressures like the NFL does, Iowa would be filling the stat book. You saw a different quarterback in Austin Arnaud after the first series, he gets the happy feet and just didn't look comfortable in the pocket at all. The linebackers have filled in nicely, if Tyler Nielsen wore a number 49 jersey with Edds on the back, you couldn't tell the difference. Bruce Davis and Jeff Tarpanian have combined to tally 16 tackles in two games, helping to ease the loss of Pat Angerer. The defensive backs have been lock down, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete only 51% of their passes for a measly 289 yards.
2. Iowa will not miss Brandon Wegher at all. Barring injury Adam Robinson and Jewel Hampton will be just fine as the primary ball carriers for the Hawkeyes. Robinson has taken the starting tailback spot by the horns and looks to be refusing to let it go. On the season, he is averaging seven yards every time he touches the ball with 4 touchdowns. Jewel, in his first real action in about 18 months, carried the ball for 84 yards on Saturday and showed an ability to inflict punishment on anyone coming to tackle him.
3. Ricky Stanzi has put 2009 firmly behind him. This season, he looks more comfortable in the pocket and his decision making is light years ahead of last year. He has yet to make one of the passes that makes you wonder what he saw. He is making is reads, progressing through his receivers and not forcing passes if they aren't there.
4. The offensive line is just fine with an injury. The five "hogs" up front have opened holes to the tune of over 5 yards per carry and kept Ricky Stanzi upright. On Saturday, Ricky Stanzi, could have pitched a tent in the pocket, he wasn't bothered at all and that has a lot to do with his success. So far, talent wise Iowa has been better than the opposing defense, but this weekend should be a good test of how good they really are.
5. The receivers have given Stanzi options. In the past, Iowa quarterbacks have been in love with throwing the ball to the tight end. This year, 11 different players have caught passes with 6 of them catching multiple passes. Opposing defenses are realizing that no longer can you just bracket the tight end and be able to cover the wide outs one on one. You try and do this now and the receivers will burn you.
Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Monday, September 13, 2010
Iowa vs Iowa State prediction review
I'm not the kind of guy who likes to toot his own horn much, but my predictions for the game were eerily close to spot-on.
When Iowa State has the ball, I said the following:
If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback.
Iowa's defensive front controlled the line of scrimmage and kept pressure on Arnaud, never allowing him to get comfortable in the pocket.
When Iowa has the ball, I said the following:
Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
From what I saw on Saturday, that is basically what happened, Stanzi game out and threw some quick outs to DJK and then came back later with a couple deep play-action passes to McNutt and Reisner.
What will happen, I said the following:
Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Iowa State only running six plays in the first quarter and half would constitute taking the wind out of the sales.
If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State.
Did anyone think that Iowa State had a chance once Iowa went up 14-0?
Prediction:
Iowa - 34 35
ISU - 6 7
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions (Three total interceptions)
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score (84 yards 1 TD)
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards (48 yards)
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters (17 quarters)
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks (2 sacks)
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving (Way off with Sandeman not grabbing a pass)
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches (DJK had 5 but McNutt only had 2)
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals (Didn't attempt any)
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores (204 with 2 td's and 1 rushing TD)
When Iowa State has the ball, I said the following:
If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback.
Iowa's defensive front controlled the line of scrimmage and kept pressure on Arnaud, never allowing him to get comfortable in the pocket.
When Iowa has the ball, I said the following:
Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
From what I saw on Saturday, that is basically what happened, Stanzi game out and threw some quick outs to DJK and then came back later with a couple deep play-action passes to McNutt and Reisner.
What will happen, I said the following:
Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Iowa State only running six plays in the first quarter and half would constitute taking the wind out of the sales.
If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State.
Did anyone think that Iowa State had a chance once Iowa went up 14-0?
Prediction:
Iowa - 34 35
ISU - 6 7
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions (Three total interceptions)
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score (84 yards 1 TD)
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards (48 yards)
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters (17 quarters)
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks (2 sacks)
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving (Way off with Sandeman not grabbing a pass)
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches (DJK had 5 but McNutt only had 2)
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals (Didn't attempt any)
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores (204 with 2 td's and 1 rushing TD)
Friday, September 10, 2010
Iowa vs Iowa State - Predictions
When Iowa State has the ball:
The Cyclones will use the tempo to try and wear down the Hawkeyes, they will try to go fast pace to not allow the Iowa defense to substitute and try to create mis-matches that way. They will be in shotgun most of the game and probably deploy three wide sets most of the game. That means that most of the game, Iowa will only have 6 men in the box. Iowa State has several talented receivers, however, most of them struggle with consistency. They have a very talented tight end in Collin Franklin who had five catches last week. Alexander Robinson last week showed why he is on the Doak Walker watch list with his 63 yard touchdown run last week, but only got 34 yards on his other 18 carries. If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback. If the Clones can stay in third and manageable situations, it will cause the defensive front four to honor the run or pass and slow them down.
When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa has to control the line of scrimmage. If they can create seams for the running backs to get through, it will cause the Iowa State safeties and linebackers to come downhill on the run harder and create opportunities in the play-action pass game. Iowa's receivers have a distinct advantage against Iowa State's secondary, David Sims didn't play last week and this week they will be without Ter'Ran Benton, one of their starting cornerbacks. Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
What will happen:
Iowa will undoubtedly take the ball on the opening kickoff and if they score right away, it puts a lot of pressure on the Iowa State offense right away. Iowa's defense is one that you do not want to be trying to mount a comeback against. If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State. Austin Arnaud was harassed last week by a Northern Illinois defense that wouldn't even be backups on the Iowa squad. Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Prediction:
Iowa - 34
ISU - 6
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores
The Cyclones will use the tempo to try and wear down the Hawkeyes, they will try to go fast pace to not allow the Iowa defense to substitute and try to create mis-matches that way. They will be in shotgun most of the game and probably deploy three wide sets most of the game. That means that most of the game, Iowa will only have 6 men in the box. Iowa State has several talented receivers, however, most of them struggle with consistency. They have a very talented tight end in Collin Franklin who had five catches last week. Alexander Robinson last week showed why he is on the Doak Walker watch list with his 63 yard touchdown run last week, but only got 34 yards on his other 18 carries. If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback. If the Clones can stay in third and manageable situations, it will cause the defensive front four to honor the run or pass and slow them down.
When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa has to control the line of scrimmage. If they can create seams for the running backs to get through, it will cause the Iowa State safeties and linebackers to come downhill on the run harder and create opportunities in the play-action pass game. Iowa's receivers have a distinct advantage against Iowa State's secondary, David Sims didn't play last week and this week they will be without Ter'Ran Benton, one of their starting cornerbacks. Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
What will happen:
Iowa will undoubtedly take the ball on the opening kickoff and if they score right away, it puts a lot of pressure on the Iowa State offense right away. Iowa's defense is one that you do not want to be trying to mount a comeback against. If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State. Austin Arnaud was harassed last week by a Northern Illinois defense that wouldn't even be backups on the Iowa squad. Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Prediction:
Iowa - 34
ISU - 6
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores
Ten Things to Watch for - Iowa State
1. Will the streak continue? If you have picked up the newspaper, turned on the Internet, listened to the radio, or watched the news this week, chances are you have heard about the streak. Iowa State hasn't scored a touchdown on Iowa in 14 quarters of game play. The streak would seem a lot better if the Cyclones hadn't squeaked out a victory with 5 field goals in 2007. Let's take a closer look at some things that have happened during the streak, Iowa State has had three coaches, two color changes, and and logo change. The total amount of game time in the streak is 210 minutes and in terms of days it will have been 1456 days since the Cyclones crossed the goal line against the Hawkeyes. You would think that there would be a broken coverage, a special teams play, or something like that in three games. It really is a testament to how great Norm Parker's defense has been.
2. Did the Iowa State coaches give Austin Arnaud a box of crayons to practice? The last two years against Iowa he has thrown for 303 yards and 6 interceptions. More remarkable when you know that Iowa State was outscored 52-8 in those games and needed to pass to try and come back. If he cannot connect with players wearing the same jersey as him, it will spell doom for Iowa State on Saturday. The biggest problem he has had is getting too greedy. Everyone in the stadium knows that Iowa will run a cover 2 zone defense 90% of the game. The way that you beat a zone like that is by utilizing the sidelines and the tight end. Where Austin has run into trouble is when he gets greedy and tries to go deep, where the Iowa safeties are lurking and waiting for the ball.
3. The streak of kickers continues at Iowa State. For years the Iowa State program has been plagued by poor kickers and punters. The sample size is small, but ISU's punter, Daniel Kuehl, has one punt for 18 yards. This week he will be playing a team that blocked a punt last week, combining with a hostile crowd to create a less than ideal situation for the punter. For your information, his backup is listed as true freshman, Kirby Van Der Kamp from West Des Moines Valley, see above for not a good spot for your first college punt. As far as kickers go, Iowa State has had a run of guys that cracked under pressure, their current one, Grant Mahoney has his own personal house of horrors, going 1-4 two years ago in Kinnick Stadium. If Iowa State has a chance at all, they have to get great performances out of their kicking game.
4. Turnovers are crucial in this game. The last two years, Iowa is +5 in turnover margin, coincidentally, Iowa is 2-0 in those games. If Iowa is positive in the turnover margin, they win the game hands down. Iowa State created 3 turnovers in their first game, but gave it away three times as well.
5. Jewel returns. After a year away from football nursing a knee injury and missing the first game this season for a suspension, Jewel Hampton returns to carry the ball for the Hawks. It remains to be seen how Iowa will divide up the running back carries this season, last year, they went series for series with the two primary ball carriers. In my opinion that was a bad move, each back runs different and to switch out as much as they did last year hurt the running game more than it helped it. Adam Robinson played well enough in week 1 to get the start, but how many carries each will get will be interesting to see.
6. The Iowa offensive line. Last week they didn't get much of a test, but they gave Ricky Stanzi plenty of time to throw the ball and created nice running lanes for Robinson to go through. This week they play against a front 7 that is much better than Eastern Illinois. The key to Iowa's offensive line success will be the running game, if they can get the running game working, it opens up the playbook for the play-action that Iowa runs so well. With all signs pointing to Josh Koeppel and Adam Gettis being healthy enough to play, it will be interesting to see if they get reps right away or if Reece Morgan sticks with James Ferentz and Nolan MacMillon.
7. The back four of Iowa's defense will be tested. Last week the lone touchdown Iowa gave up came on a fake punt run and long pass play. This week Iowa's defensive backs will see four and five wide sets and be challenged to cover the bigger Iowa State receivers. If Iowa State is successful in the passing game and gets Iowa to go to a nickel or dime set regularly, it will open up ISU's zone read running plays.
8. If last week was a glimpse into how Ricky Stanzi will play this season, Iowa fans can breath a little bit easier. He made good decisions last week, checking down and even running instead of forcing passes into coverage. If he can minimize his mistakes, he could have a field day with the suspect at best Cyclone defensive backfield. If Iowa gets the run game working, it will cause the Iowa State defense to fast flow and open up bootlegs where Ricky will find his talented receivers in single coverage against the secondary.
9. Can Clayborn and company rebound from a poor performance last year in Ames. To a man the defensive line will tell you that they were pushed around last year by the offensive line of the Cyclones. This year, they should have a chip on their shoulder and if they cannot own the line of scrimmage, it spells trouble for the Hawkeyes. It also remains to be seen if they will get too much pressure. If they begin to get up field with ease, it opens up creases for Alexander Robinson to run through. Look for Iowa State to control the defensive pressure with screens and draws.
10. Will Norm Parker be in attendance? No football fan can deny the fact that Norm Parker is one of the better defensive coordinators in the nation. He has a knack for being able to take away what the other team wants to do offensively. He is able to do this without setting his team up for failure with blitzes and risky man coverages. He was in the hospital today and his absence from the stadium tomorrow would be felt.
2. Did the Iowa State coaches give Austin Arnaud a box of crayons to practice? The last two years against Iowa he has thrown for 303 yards and 6 interceptions. More remarkable when you know that Iowa State was outscored 52-8 in those games and needed to pass to try and come back. If he cannot connect with players wearing the same jersey as him, it will spell doom for Iowa State on Saturday. The biggest problem he has had is getting too greedy. Everyone in the stadium knows that Iowa will run a cover 2 zone defense 90% of the game. The way that you beat a zone like that is by utilizing the sidelines and the tight end. Where Austin has run into trouble is when he gets greedy and tries to go deep, where the Iowa safeties are lurking and waiting for the ball.
3. The streak of kickers continues at Iowa State. For years the Iowa State program has been plagued by poor kickers and punters. The sample size is small, but ISU's punter, Daniel Kuehl, has one punt for 18 yards. This week he will be playing a team that blocked a punt last week, combining with a hostile crowd to create a less than ideal situation for the punter. For your information, his backup is listed as true freshman, Kirby Van Der Kamp from West Des Moines Valley, see above for not a good spot for your first college punt. As far as kickers go, Iowa State has had a run of guys that cracked under pressure, their current one, Grant Mahoney has his own personal house of horrors, going 1-4 two years ago in Kinnick Stadium. If Iowa State has a chance at all, they have to get great performances out of their kicking game.
4. Turnovers are crucial in this game. The last two years, Iowa is +5 in turnover margin, coincidentally, Iowa is 2-0 in those games. If Iowa is positive in the turnover margin, they win the game hands down. Iowa State created 3 turnovers in their first game, but gave it away three times as well.
5. Jewel returns. After a year away from football nursing a knee injury and missing the first game this season for a suspension, Jewel Hampton returns to carry the ball for the Hawks. It remains to be seen how Iowa will divide up the running back carries this season, last year, they went series for series with the two primary ball carriers. In my opinion that was a bad move, each back runs different and to switch out as much as they did last year hurt the running game more than it helped it. Adam Robinson played well enough in week 1 to get the start, but how many carries each will get will be interesting to see.
6. The Iowa offensive line. Last week they didn't get much of a test, but they gave Ricky Stanzi plenty of time to throw the ball and created nice running lanes for Robinson to go through. This week they play against a front 7 that is much better than Eastern Illinois. The key to Iowa's offensive line success will be the running game, if they can get the running game working, it opens up the playbook for the play-action that Iowa runs so well. With all signs pointing to Josh Koeppel and Adam Gettis being healthy enough to play, it will be interesting to see if they get reps right away or if Reece Morgan sticks with James Ferentz and Nolan MacMillon.
7. The back four of Iowa's defense will be tested. Last week the lone touchdown Iowa gave up came on a fake punt run and long pass play. This week Iowa's defensive backs will see four and five wide sets and be challenged to cover the bigger Iowa State receivers. If Iowa State is successful in the passing game and gets Iowa to go to a nickel or dime set regularly, it will open up ISU's zone read running plays.
8. If last week was a glimpse into how Ricky Stanzi will play this season, Iowa fans can breath a little bit easier. He made good decisions last week, checking down and even running instead of forcing passes into coverage. If he can minimize his mistakes, he could have a field day with the suspect at best Cyclone defensive backfield. If Iowa gets the run game working, it will cause the Iowa State defense to fast flow and open up bootlegs where Ricky will find his talented receivers in single coverage against the secondary.
9. Can Clayborn and company rebound from a poor performance last year in Ames. To a man the defensive line will tell you that they were pushed around last year by the offensive line of the Cyclones. This year, they should have a chip on their shoulder and if they cannot own the line of scrimmage, it spells trouble for the Hawkeyes. It also remains to be seen if they will get too much pressure. If they begin to get up field with ease, it opens up creases for Alexander Robinson to run through. Look for Iowa State to control the defensive pressure with screens and draws.
10. Will Norm Parker be in attendance? No football fan can deny the fact that Norm Parker is one of the better defensive coordinators in the nation. He has a knack for being able to take away what the other team wants to do offensively. He is able to do this without setting his team up for failure with blitzes and risky man coverages. He was in the hospital today and his absence from the stadium tomorrow would be felt.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
What we learned - Eastern Illinois
Unlike last year, Iowa took care of business in a convincing fashion in their season opener. Here are ten things that we learned in Week 1 about the 2010 Iowa Hawkeyes:
1. Barring injury Iowa will be fine without Brandon Wegher in the backfield. Adam Robinson showed a burst that he didn't display at any point of last season. He ran with a purpose and did not allow the first defender to bring him down and was consistently gaining yards after contact. He did a great job on the zone runs making one cut and then getting up field, which is crucial in Iowa's offense. Coming into the season it was widely thought that Jewel was the #1, if that remains true, than Robinson might be the best #2 back in the Big Ten and gives Iowa one of the best running back duo's in the league.
2. Iowa will not be out performed on special teams this season. Everyone knows that Ryan Donahue is good, he didn't get much work on Saturday, but his one punt went for 43 yards and was downed inside the five yard line. Paki O'Meara blocked, scooped, and scored a punt and is a valuable special teams weapon. Eastern Illinois' average starting position on kickoffs was the 20.5 yard line, while Iowa's average starting position was the 37 yard line. We didn't get to see and field goals, so that will remain to be seen.
3. It won't be easy to run on this defense. We all knew this coming into the season, but the defense works so well together, there is no "I" in the front seven, they all know their responsibilities and know that if they take care of theirs that someone else will make the play. On the day, if you take out the fake punt run that was on the special teams, not the defense, Eastern Illinois only amassed 29 yards on 23 carries.
4. James Vandenberg is more ready this season to step in than he was last year. In my ten things to watch for, I said that Iowa needed to come out of the game relatively injury free, and the entire Hawkeye Nation held its breath when Ricky Stanzi went down awkwardly. He was fine and James stepped in and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat.
5. Ricky Stanzi may have finally had the "it" click. Several times on Saturday you saw Stanzi progress through his reads and not try to force passes into receivers that may not have been open. His best play of the day in my opinion came then Iowa was in the red zone and ran double slants and he pumped, pumped again, and then tucked and scrambled for a half a yard gain. Last season that would have been a pass the Stanzi forced into coverage.
6. Stanzi doesn't play favorites with his receivers. He has two great ones in DJK and Marvin McNutt, but combined they only caught three passes. Overall ten different Hawkeyes caught passes on Saturday, 8 by the wide receivers, 8 by the tight ends, and surprisingly 5 by the running backs. This makes Iowa tougher to defend as they don't have a single go-to guy on the team.
1. Barring injury Iowa will be fine without Brandon Wegher in the backfield. Adam Robinson showed a burst that he didn't display at any point of last season. He ran with a purpose and did not allow the first defender to bring him down and was consistently gaining yards after contact. He did a great job on the zone runs making one cut and then getting up field, which is crucial in Iowa's offense. Coming into the season it was widely thought that Jewel was the #1, if that remains true, than Robinson might be the best #2 back in the Big Ten and gives Iowa one of the best running back duo's in the league.
2. Iowa will not be out performed on special teams this season. Everyone knows that Ryan Donahue is good, he didn't get much work on Saturday, but his one punt went for 43 yards and was downed inside the five yard line. Paki O'Meara blocked, scooped, and scored a punt and is a valuable special teams weapon. Eastern Illinois' average starting position on kickoffs was the 20.5 yard line, while Iowa's average starting position was the 37 yard line. We didn't get to see and field goals, so that will remain to be seen.
3. It won't be easy to run on this defense. We all knew this coming into the season, but the defense works so well together, there is no "I" in the front seven, they all know their responsibilities and know that if they take care of theirs that someone else will make the play. On the day, if you take out the fake punt run that was on the special teams, not the defense, Eastern Illinois only amassed 29 yards on 23 carries.
4. James Vandenberg is more ready this season to step in than he was last year. In my ten things to watch for, I said that Iowa needed to come out of the game relatively injury free, and the entire Hawkeye Nation held its breath when Ricky Stanzi went down awkwardly. He was fine and James stepped in and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat.
5. Ricky Stanzi may have finally had the "it" click. Several times on Saturday you saw Stanzi progress through his reads and not try to force passes into receivers that may not have been open. His best play of the day in my opinion came then Iowa was in the red zone and ran double slants and he pumped, pumped again, and then tucked and scrambled for a half a yard gain. Last season that would have been a pass the Stanzi forced into coverage.
6. Stanzi doesn't play favorites with his receivers. He has two great ones in DJK and Marvin McNutt, but combined they only caught three passes. Overall ten different Hawkeyes caught passes on Saturday, 8 by the wide receivers, 8 by the tight ends, and surprisingly 5 by the running backs. This makes Iowa tougher to defend as they don't have a single go-to guy on the team.
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