I'm not the kind of guy who likes to toot his own horn much, but my predictions for the game were eerily close to spot-on.
When Iowa State has the ball, I said the following:
If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback.
Iowa's defensive front controlled the line of scrimmage and kept pressure on Arnaud, never allowing him to get comfortable in the pocket.
When Iowa has the ball, I said the following:
Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
From what I saw on Saturday, that is basically what happened, Stanzi game out and threw some quick outs to DJK and then came back later with a couple deep play-action passes to McNutt and Reisner.
What will happen, I said the following:
Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Iowa State only running six plays in the first quarter and half would constitute taking the wind out of the sales.
If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State.
Did anyone think that Iowa State had a chance once Iowa went up 14-0?
Prediction:
Iowa - 34 35
ISU - 6 7
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions (Three total interceptions)
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score (84 yards 1 TD)
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards (48 yards)
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters (17 quarters)
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks (2 sacks)
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving (Way off with Sandeman not grabbing a pass)
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches (DJK had 5 but McNutt only had 2)
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals (Didn't attempt any)
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores (204 with 2 td's and 1 rushing TD)
Monday, September 13, 2010
Friday, September 10, 2010
Iowa vs Iowa State - Predictions
When Iowa State has the ball:
The Cyclones will use the tempo to try and wear down the Hawkeyes, they will try to go fast pace to not allow the Iowa defense to substitute and try to create mis-matches that way. They will be in shotgun most of the game and probably deploy three wide sets most of the game. That means that most of the game, Iowa will only have 6 men in the box. Iowa State has several talented receivers, however, most of them struggle with consistency. They have a very talented tight end in Collin Franklin who had five catches last week. Alexander Robinson last week showed why he is on the Doak Walker watch list with his 63 yard touchdown run last week, but only got 34 yards on his other 18 carries. If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback. If the Clones can stay in third and manageable situations, it will cause the defensive front four to honor the run or pass and slow them down.
When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa has to control the line of scrimmage. If they can create seams for the running backs to get through, it will cause the Iowa State safeties and linebackers to come downhill on the run harder and create opportunities in the play-action pass game. Iowa's receivers have a distinct advantage against Iowa State's secondary, David Sims didn't play last week and this week they will be without Ter'Ran Benton, one of their starting cornerbacks. Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
What will happen:
Iowa will undoubtedly take the ball on the opening kickoff and if they score right away, it puts a lot of pressure on the Iowa State offense right away. Iowa's defense is one that you do not want to be trying to mount a comeback against. If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State. Austin Arnaud was harassed last week by a Northern Illinois defense that wouldn't even be backups on the Iowa squad. Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Prediction:
Iowa - 34
ISU - 6
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores
The Cyclones will use the tempo to try and wear down the Hawkeyes, they will try to go fast pace to not allow the Iowa defense to substitute and try to create mis-matches that way. They will be in shotgun most of the game and probably deploy three wide sets most of the game. That means that most of the game, Iowa will only have 6 men in the box. Iowa State has several talented receivers, however, most of them struggle with consistency. They have a very talented tight end in Collin Franklin who had five catches last week. Alexander Robinson last week showed why he is on the Doak Walker watch list with his 63 yard touchdown run last week, but only got 34 yards on his other 18 carries. If Iowa's defensive front seven can handle the run and force Austin Arnaud into third and long passing situations, it spells trouble for the senior quarterback. If the Clones can stay in third and manageable situations, it will cause the defensive front four to honor the run or pass and slow them down.
When Iowa has the ball:
Iowa has to control the line of scrimmage. If they can create seams for the running backs to get through, it will cause the Iowa State safeties and linebackers to come downhill on the run harder and create opportunities in the play-action pass game. Iowa's receivers have a distinct advantage against Iowa State's secondary, David Sims didn't play last week and this week they will be without Ter'Ran Benton, one of their starting cornerbacks. Look for Iowa to establish the short pass game to soften up the Cyclone defense and come back with runs and play action deep balls.
What will happen:
Iowa will undoubtedly take the ball on the opening kickoff and if they score right away, it puts a lot of pressure on the Iowa State offense right away. Iowa's defense is one that you do not want to be trying to mount a comeback against. If Iowa can get a 10 or 14 point lead, it could spell game over for Iowa State. Austin Arnaud was harassed last week by a Northern Illinois defense that wouldn't even be backups on the Iowa squad. Look for the Hawkeyes to dominate the first half and take the wind out of the Iowa State sails with a ball control offense that eats up the clock.
Prediction:
Iowa - 34
ISU - 6
Arnaud will throw another three interceptions
Jewel Hampton returns with 125 and a score
The Hawkeye defense holds Alexander Robinson to less than 60 yards
The Streak will be extended to 18 quarters
Iowa will tally 5+ sacks
Colin Sandeman grabs a TD and 100+ yards receiving
McNutt and DJK both have 5 catches
Mahoney misses 2+ field goals
Stanzi throws for 275 and three scores
Ten Things to Watch for - Iowa State
1. Will the streak continue? If you have picked up the newspaper, turned on the Internet, listened to the radio, or watched the news this week, chances are you have heard about the streak. Iowa State hasn't scored a touchdown on Iowa in 14 quarters of game play. The streak would seem a lot better if the Cyclones hadn't squeaked out a victory with 5 field goals in 2007. Let's take a closer look at some things that have happened during the streak, Iowa State has had three coaches, two color changes, and and logo change. The total amount of game time in the streak is 210 minutes and in terms of days it will have been 1456 days since the Cyclones crossed the goal line against the Hawkeyes. You would think that there would be a broken coverage, a special teams play, or something like that in three games. It really is a testament to how great Norm Parker's defense has been.
2. Did the Iowa State coaches give Austin Arnaud a box of crayons to practice? The last two years against Iowa he has thrown for 303 yards and 6 interceptions. More remarkable when you know that Iowa State was outscored 52-8 in those games and needed to pass to try and come back. If he cannot connect with players wearing the same jersey as him, it will spell doom for Iowa State on Saturday. The biggest problem he has had is getting too greedy. Everyone in the stadium knows that Iowa will run a cover 2 zone defense 90% of the game. The way that you beat a zone like that is by utilizing the sidelines and the tight end. Where Austin has run into trouble is when he gets greedy and tries to go deep, where the Iowa safeties are lurking and waiting for the ball.
3. The streak of kickers continues at Iowa State. For years the Iowa State program has been plagued by poor kickers and punters. The sample size is small, but ISU's punter, Daniel Kuehl, has one punt for 18 yards. This week he will be playing a team that blocked a punt last week, combining with a hostile crowd to create a less than ideal situation for the punter. For your information, his backup is listed as true freshman, Kirby Van Der Kamp from West Des Moines Valley, see above for not a good spot for your first college punt. As far as kickers go, Iowa State has had a run of guys that cracked under pressure, their current one, Grant Mahoney has his own personal house of horrors, going 1-4 two years ago in Kinnick Stadium. If Iowa State has a chance at all, they have to get great performances out of their kicking game.
4. Turnovers are crucial in this game. The last two years, Iowa is +5 in turnover margin, coincidentally, Iowa is 2-0 in those games. If Iowa is positive in the turnover margin, they win the game hands down. Iowa State created 3 turnovers in their first game, but gave it away three times as well.
5. Jewel returns. After a year away from football nursing a knee injury and missing the first game this season for a suspension, Jewel Hampton returns to carry the ball for the Hawks. It remains to be seen how Iowa will divide up the running back carries this season, last year, they went series for series with the two primary ball carriers. In my opinion that was a bad move, each back runs different and to switch out as much as they did last year hurt the running game more than it helped it. Adam Robinson played well enough in week 1 to get the start, but how many carries each will get will be interesting to see.
6. The Iowa offensive line. Last week they didn't get much of a test, but they gave Ricky Stanzi plenty of time to throw the ball and created nice running lanes for Robinson to go through. This week they play against a front 7 that is much better than Eastern Illinois. The key to Iowa's offensive line success will be the running game, if they can get the running game working, it opens up the playbook for the play-action that Iowa runs so well. With all signs pointing to Josh Koeppel and Adam Gettis being healthy enough to play, it will be interesting to see if they get reps right away or if Reece Morgan sticks with James Ferentz and Nolan MacMillon.
7. The back four of Iowa's defense will be tested. Last week the lone touchdown Iowa gave up came on a fake punt run and long pass play. This week Iowa's defensive backs will see four and five wide sets and be challenged to cover the bigger Iowa State receivers. If Iowa State is successful in the passing game and gets Iowa to go to a nickel or dime set regularly, it will open up ISU's zone read running plays.
8. If last week was a glimpse into how Ricky Stanzi will play this season, Iowa fans can breath a little bit easier. He made good decisions last week, checking down and even running instead of forcing passes into coverage. If he can minimize his mistakes, he could have a field day with the suspect at best Cyclone defensive backfield. If Iowa gets the run game working, it will cause the Iowa State defense to fast flow and open up bootlegs where Ricky will find his talented receivers in single coverage against the secondary.
9. Can Clayborn and company rebound from a poor performance last year in Ames. To a man the defensive line will tell you that they were pushed around last year by the offensive line of the Cyclones. This year, they should have a chip on their shoulder and if they cannot own the line of scrimmage, it spells trouble for the Hawkeyes. It also remains to be seen if they will get too much pressure. If they begin to get up field with ease, it opens up creases for Alexander Robinson to run through. Look for Iowa State to control the defensive pressure with screens and draws.
10. Will Norm Parker be in attendance? No football fan can deny the fact that Norm Parker is one of the better defensive coordinators in the nation. He has a knack for being able to take away what the other team wants to do offensively. He is able to do this without setting his team up for failure with blitzes and risky man coverages. He was in the hospital today and his absence from the stadium tomorrow would be felt.
2. Did the Iowa State coaches give Austin Arnaud a box of crayons to practice? The last two years against Iowa he has thrown for 303 yards and 6 interceptions. More remarkable when you know that Iowa State was outscored 52-8 in those games and needed to pass to try and come back. If he cannot connect with players wearing the same jersey as him, it will spell doom for Iowa State on Saturday. The biggest problem he has had is getting too greedy. Everyone in the stadium knows that Iowa will run a cover 2 zone defense 90% of the game. The way that you beat a zone like that is by utilizing the sidelines and the tight end. Where Austin has run into trouble is when he gets greedy and tries to go deep, where the Iowa safeties are lurking and waiting for the ball.
3. The streak of kickers continues at Iowa State. For years the Iowa State program has been plagued by poor kickers and punters. The sample size is small, but ISU's punter, Daniel Kuehl, has one punt for 18 yards. This week he will be playing a team that blocked a punt last week, combining with a hostile crowd to create a less than ideal situation for the punter. For your information, his backup is listed as true freshman, Kirby Van Der Kamp from West Des Moines Valley, see above for not a good spot for your first college punt. As far as kickers go, Iowa State has had a run of guys that cracked under pressure, their current one, Grant Mahoney has his own personal house of horrors, going 1-4 two years ago in Kinnick Stadium. If Iowa State has a chance at all, they have to get great performances out of their kicking game.
4. Turnovers are crucial in this game. The last two years, Iowa is +5 in turnover margin, coincidentally, Iowa is 2-0 in those games. If Iowa is positive in the turnover margin, they win the game hands down. Iowa State created 3 turnovers in their first game, but gave it away three times as well.
5. Jewel returns. After a year away from football nursing a knee injury and missing the first game this season for a suspension, Jewel Hampton returns to carry the ball for the Hawks. It remains to be seen how Iowa will divide up the running back carries this season, last year, they went series for series with the two primary ball carriers. In my opinion that was a bad move, each back runs different and to switch out as much as they did last year hurt the running game more than it helped it. Adam Robinson played well enough in week 1 to get the start, but how many carries each will get will be interesting to see.
6. The Iowa offensive line. Last week they didn't get much of a test, but they gave Ricky Stanzi plenty of time to throw the ball and created nice running lanes for Robinson to go through. This week they play against a front 7 that is much better than Eastern Illinois. The key to Iowa's offensive line success will be the running game, if they can get the running game working, it opens up the playbook for the play-action that Iowa runs so well. With all signs pointing to Josh Koeppel and Adam Gettis being healthy enough to play, it will be interesting to see if they get reps right away or if Reece Morgan sticks with James Ferentz and Nolan MacMillon.
7. The back four of Iowa's defense will be tested. Last week the lone touchdown Iowa gave up came on a fake punt run and long pass play. This week Iowa's defensive backs will see four and five wide sets and be challenged to cover the bigger Iowa State receivers. If Iowa State is successful in the passing game and gets Iowa to go to a nickel or dime set regularly, it will open up ISU's zone read running plays.
8. If last week was a glimpse into how Ricky Stanzi will play this season, Iowa fans can breath a little bit easier. He made good decisions last week, checking down and even running instead of forcing passes into coverage. If he can minimize his mistakes, he could have a field day with the suspect at best Cyclone defensive backfield. If Iowa gets the run game working, it will cause the Iowa State defense to fast flow and open up bootlegs where Ricky will find his talented receivers in single coverage against the secondary.
9. Can Clayborn and company rebound from a poor performance last year in Ames. To a man the defensive line will tell you that they were pushed around last year by the offensive line of the Cyclones. This year, they should have a chip on their shoulder and if they cannot own the line of scrimmage, it spells trouble for the Hawkeyes. It also remains to be seen if they will get too much pressure. If they begin to get up field with ease, it opens up creases for Alexander Robinson to run through. Look for Iowa State to control the defensive pressure with screens and draws.
10. Will Norm Parker be in attendance? No football fan can deny the fact that Norm Parker is one of the better defensive coordinators in the nation. He has a knack for being able to take away what the other team wants to do offensively. He is able to do this without setting his team up for failure with blitzes and risky man coverages. He was in the hospital today and his absence from the stadium tomorrow would be felt.
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
What we learned - Eastern Illinois
Unlike last year, Iowa took care of business in a convincing fashion in their season opener. Here are ten things that we learned in Week 1 about the 2010 Iowa Hawkeyes:
1. Barring injury Iowa will be fine without Brandon Wegher in the backfield. Adam Robinson showed a burst that he didn't display at any point of last season. He ran with a purpose and did not allow the first defender to bring him down and was consistently gaining yards after contact. He did a great job on the zone runs making one cut and then getting up field, which is crucial in Iowa's offense. Coming into the season it was widely thought that Jewel was the #1, if that remains true, than Robinson might be the best #2 back in the Big Ten and gives Iowa one of the best running back duo's in the league.
2. Iowa will not be out performed on special teams this season. Everyone knows that Ryan Donahue is good, he didn't get much work on Saturday, but his one punt went for 43 yards and was downed inside the five yard line. Paki O'Meara blocked, scooped, and scored a punt and is a valuable special teams weapon. Eastern Illinois' average starting position on kickoffs was the 20.5 yard line, while Iowa's average starting position was the 37 yard line. We didn't get to see and field goals, so that will remain to be seen.
3. It won't be easy to run on this defense. We all knew this coming into the season, but the defense works so well together, there is no "I" in the front seven, they all know their responsibilities and know that if they take care of theirs that someone else will make the play. On the day, if you take out the fake punt run that was on the special teams, not the defense, Eastern Illinois only amassed 29 yards on 23 carries.
4. James Vandenberg is more ready this season to step in than he was last year. In my ten things to watch for, I said that Iowa needed to come out of the game relatively injury free, and the entire Hawkeye Nation held its breath when Ricky Stanzi went down awkwardly. He was fine and James stepped in and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat.
5. Ricky Stanzi may have finally had the "it" click. Several times on Saturday you saw Stanzi progress through his reads and not try to force passes into receivers that may not have been open. His best play of the day in my opinion came then Iowa was in the red zone and ran double slants and he pumped, pumped again, and then tucked and scrambled for a half a yard gain. Last season that would have been a pass the Stanzi forced into coverage.
6. Stanzi doesn't play favorites with his receivers. He has two great ones in DJK and Marvin McNutt, but combined they only caught three passes. Overall ten different Hawkeyes caught passes on Saturday, 8 by the wide receivers, 8 by the tight ends, and surprisingly 5 by the running backs. This makes Iowa tougher to defend as they don't have a single go-to guy on the team.
1. Barring injury Iowa will be fine without Brandon Wegher in the backfield. Adam Robinson showed a burst that he didn't display at any point of last season. He ran with a purpose and did not allow the first defender to bring him down and was consistently gaining yards after contact. He did a great job on the zone runs making one cut and then getting up field, which is crucial in Iowa's offense. Coming into the season it was widely thought that Jewel was the #1, if that remains true, than Robinson might be the best #2 back in the Big Ten and gives Iowa one of the best running back duo's in the league.
2. Iowa will not be out performed on special teams this season. Everyone knows that Ryan Donahue is good, he didn't get much work on Saturday, but his one punt went for 43 yards and was downed inside the five yard line. Paki O'Meara blocked, scooped, and scored a punt and is a valuable special teams weapon. Eastern Illinois' average starting position on kickoffs was the 20.5 yard line, while Iowa's average starting position was the 37 yard line. We didn't get to see and field goals, so that will remain to be seen.
3. It won't be easy to run on this defense. We all knew this coming into the season, but the defense works so well together, there is no "I" in the front seven, they all know their responsibilities and know that if they take care of theirs that someone else will make the play. On the day, if you take out the fake punt run that was on the special teams, not the defense, Eastern Illinois only amassed 29 yards on 23 carries.
4. James Vandenberg is more ready this season to step in than he was last year. In my ten things to watch for, I said that Iowa needed to come out of the game relatively injury free, and the entire Hawkeye Nation held its breath when Ricky Stanzi went down awkwardly. He was fine and James stepped in and the offense didn't seem to miss a beat.
5. Ricky Stanzi may have finally had the "it" click. Several times on Saturday you saw Stanzi progress through his reads and not try to force passes into receivers that may not have been open. His best play of the day in my opinion came then Iowa was in the red zone and ran double slants and he pumped, pumped again, and then tucked and scrambled for a half a yard gain. Last season that would have been a pass the Stanzi forced into coverage.
6. Stanzi doesn't play favorites with his receivers. He has two great ones in DJK and Marvin McNutt, but combined they only caught three passes. Overall ten different Hawkeyes caught passes on Saturday, 8 by the wide receivers, 8 by the tight ends, and surprisingly 5 by the running backs. This makes Iowa tougher to defend as they don't have a single go-to guy on the team.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Ten things to watch for - Eastern Illinois
It will have been 242 days since Iowa’s convincing Orange Bowl victory and the Iowa fans have yet to come down from cloud nine. Add to that the preseason magazines picks for Iowa and the fans are in frenzy about the season to start. Here are ten things to look for this weekend in Iowa City:
1. Who will be the backup running back
In the preseason Jewel Hampton solidified his position as the #1 running back for the Iowa squad, unfortunately his brush with the law this summer will cause him to miss the game this weekend. Brandon Wegher split carries last fall, but in fall camp he left for personal reasons and has yet to return. That leaves last years leading rusher, Adam Robinson, as the primary ball carrier this weekend. Last season Adam proved he could be a quality Big Ten running back, however he didn’t have to be the workhorse last year, so nobody know how he will do getting the bulk of the carries. Backing up Adam will be Paki O’Meara, who last year was the starter week 1, but didn’t see much action after that. If Paki gets meaningful carries outside of week 1 this year, the Hawks are in trouble. Jason White will probably get the carries as the third back this week, but don’t look for him to get many carries this season without someone getting hurt. De’Andre Johnson and Marcus Coker are true freshman that the Iowa staff would love to red-shirt this season, but if the injury bug hits the running back corps, look for one or both of them to play. Coker almost assured himself of a red-shirt getting injured in camp, but if Johnson plays on Saturday, it could be the Iowa coaches tipping their hand that Wegher is not going to be back this season and they want Johnson to get experience in case of an injury.
2. Offensive line
Last year’s starting offensive line essentially lost four starters, Riley Reiff and Julian Vandervelde being the only two back with significant experience. That is the bad news, the good news is that the second string has worked together most of last season and now those guys are the starters. In Iowa’s zone blocking scheme, cohesiveness is very valuable and having worked together, this offensive line does have that.
3. Other offense play calling
You would have had to have been living under a rock to not know that Iowa’s defensive line is very good. In college football today, it is almost like a backyard football game with 4 and 5 receivers very commonly used. I don’t see any teams running that many receivers into routes this year, because it would leave their offensive line to use five guys to block Iowa’s four lineman, which means four guys would be getting blocked man on man, Iowa’s line wins that scenario 90% of the time. You will see a lot of max protects and chip blocks to try and slow down the Iowa pass rush.
4. An act of Stanzi
Last year opposing teams returned four of Ricky Stanzi’s interceptions for touchdowns and collected 15 total interceptions. Coming into the season Ricky has said that he needs to make better decisions and that the pick 6’s were all the same route. In the fall you saw Stanzi make a point to check down to the backs in the flat, something that you didn’t see much of last year. With the stable of receivers at his disposal, the only person that can stop Stanzi is himself.
5. The island
Iowa has ranked 5th and 4th nationally the last two years in interceptions. They sent Amari Spievey to the NFL off of last season’s squad. The other starting corner back last season, Shaun Prater, injured his leg this fall and may or may not play on Saturday. That leaves Greg Castillo and Micah Hyde as the starters. Both are very skilled defenders, but both are very young and lack game reps. They will be helped by the Iowa defensive line, which should cause most opposing quarterbacks to throw passes before they want to and with pressure on them.
6. Linebacker depth
Any time that you get two of your three linebackers drafted into the NFL you will have a drop-off in experience. However there may not be much of a drop-off in talent. Jeff Tarpanian takes over in the middle and has played special teams for the last three years and spot duty at linebacker. He will be great in pass coverage, however his size is a concern in the run game. Tyler Nielsen will take over at Leo linebacker and has had very little game experience, but was the understudy of one of the better Leo’s at Iowa in A.J. Edds. Just like the corner backs, both of these linebackers will benefit from the defensive line drawing a lot of attention.
7. Injury bug
Iowa fans need to hope that the only time they see the green gator tractor is when it leaves the field with supplies, not carrying a player. A game that the outcome should not be in question, you have to leave without major injury. However, at most positions this is the deepest Iowa squad in recent memory, but there are some positions that are thin, running back being one of them.
8. True freshman to play
In his press conference this week, Kirk Ferentz alluded to the fact that we could see as many as seven true freshman on the field this weekend. My best guess is: Carl Davis (DT), Christian Kirksey (LB), James Morris (LB), C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE), Kevonte Martin-Manley (WR), Jim Poggi (LB), and one defensive back of the following Tanner Miller, B.J. Lowery, and Anthony Hitchens.
9. Who kicks
Last year, Iowa had the luxury of Trent Mossbrucker using his red-shirt, so there was never a kicking controversy. This season both players will play and neither one has grabbed the starting spot yet. What you will probably see is them alternating kicks this weekend and through the non-conference until one of them starts to out-perform the other and becomes the starter.
10. Offensive sets
As a fan of Iowa you are accustomed to two wide receivers, one tight end, and two running backs as the basic set. Last year we saw more three wide receiver sets than most can remember in the Kirk Ferentz era at Iowa. This season the stable of receivers is the deepest at Iowa in the last several decades. Each one has the ability, along with being able to catch passes, to be a good down the field blocker. Will Iowa deploy more three wide sets to spread out defenses to run or possibly even four wide receiver sets? They certainly have the players to do that, but the question remains, will they?
1. Who will be the backup running back
In the preseason Jewel Hampton solidified his position as the #1 running back for the Iowa squad, unfortunately his brush with the law this summer will cause him to miss the game this weekend. Brandon Wegher split carries last fall, but in fall camp he left for personal reasons and has yet to return. That leaves last years leading rusher, Adam Robinson, as the primary ball carrier this weekend. Last season Adam proved he could be a quality Big Ten running back, however he didn’t have to be the workhorse last year, so nobody know how he will do getting the bulk of the carries. Backing up Adam will be Paki O’Meara, who last year was the starter week 1, but didn’t see much action after that. If Paki gets meaningful carries outside of week 1 this year, the Hawks are in trouble. Jason White will probably get the carries as the third back this week, but don’t look for him to get many carries this season without someone getting hurt. De’Andre Johnson and Marcus Coker are true freshman that the Iowa staff would love to red-shirt this season, but if the injury bug hits the running back corps, look for one or both of them to play. Coker almost assured himself of a red-shirt getting injured in camp, but if Johnson plays on Saturday, it could be the Iowa coaches tipping their hand that Wegher is not going to be back this season and they want Johnson to get experience in case of an injury.
2. Offensive line
Last year’s starting offensive line essentially lost four starters, Riley Reiff and Julian Vandervelde being the only two back with significant experience. That is the bad news, the good news is that the second string has worked together most of last season and now those guys are the starters. In Iowa’s zone blocking scheme, cohesiveness is very valuable and having worked together, this offensive line does have that.
3. Other offense play calling
You would have had to have been living under a rock to not know that Iowa’s defensive line is very good. In college football today, it is almost like a backyard football game with 4 and 5 receivers very commonly used. I don’t see any teams running that many receivers into routes this year, because it would leave their offensive line to use five guys to block Iowa’s four lineman, which means four guys would be getting blocked man on man, Iowa’s line wins that scenario 90% of the time. You will see a lot of max protects and chip blocks to try and slow down the Iowa pass rush.
4. An act of Stanzi
Last year opposing teams returned four of Ricky Stanzi’s interceptions for touchdowns and collected 15 total interceptions. Coming into the season Ricky has said that he needs to make better decisions and that the pick 6’s were all the same route. In the fall you saw Stanzi make a point to check down to the backs in the flat, something that you didn’t see much of last year. With the stable of receivers at his disposal, the only person that can stop Stanzi is himself.
5. The island
Iowa has ranked 5th and 4th nationally the last two years in interceptions. They sent Amari Spievey to the NFL off of last season’s squad. The other starting corner back last season, Shaun Prater, injured his leg this fall and may or may not play on Saturday. That leaves Greg Castillo and Micah Hyde as the starters. Both are very skilled defenders, but both are very young and lack game reps. They will be helped by the Iowa defensive line, which should cause most opposing quarterbacks to throw passes before they want to and with pressure on them.
6. Linebacker depth
Any time that you get two of your three linebackers drafted into the NFL you will have a drop-off in experience. However there may not be much of a drop-off in talent. Jeff Tarpanian takes over in the middle and has played special teams for the last three years and spot duty at linebacker. He will be great in pass coverage, however his size is a concern in the run game. Tyler Nielsen will take over at Leo linebacker and has had very little game experience, but was the understudy of one of the better Leo’s at Iowa in A.J. Edds. Just like the corner backs, both of these linebackers will benefit from the defensive line drawing a lot of attention.
7. Injury bug
Iowa fans need to hope that the only time they see the green gator tractor is when it leaves the field with supplies, not carrying a player. A game that the outcome should not be in question, you have to leave without major injury. However, at most positions this is the deepest Iowa squad in recent memory, but there are some positions that are thin, running back being one of them.
8. True freshman to play
In his press conference this week, Kirk Ferentz alluded to the fact that we could see as many as seven true freshman on the field this weekend. My best guess is: Carl Davis (DT), Christian Kirksey (LB), James Morris (LB), C.J. Fiedorowicz (TE), Kevonte Martin-Manley (WR), Jim Poggi (LB), and one defensive back of the following Tanner Miller, B.J. Lowery, and Anthony Hitchens.
9. Who kicks
Last year, Iowa had the luxury of Trent Mossbrucker using his red-shirt, so there was never a kicking controversy. This season both players will play and neither one has grabbed the starting spot yet. What you will probably see is them alternating kicks this weekend and through the non-conference until one of them starts to out-perform the other and becomes the starter.
10. Offensive sets
As a fan of Iowa you are accustomed to two wide receivers, one tight end, and two running backs as the basic set. Last year we saw more three wide receiver sets than most can remember in the Kirk Ferentz era at Iowa. This season the stable of receivers is the deepest at Iowa in the last several decades. Each one has the ability, along with being able to catch passes, to be a good down the field blocker. Will Iowa deploy more three wide sets to spread out defenses to run or possibly even four wide receiver sets? They certainly have the players to do that, but the question remains, will they?
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